Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:11:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
57 0x57de…20cb crypto 1278 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (93 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9,286 (-4%) realized −$6,552 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate87%1115W / 162L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$199per market
Trades / day92.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$309now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,576
7 days−$2,900
14 days−$12,136
30 days−$6,552
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$5,119
other 1% −$1,049
sports 0% −$375
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (93 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 344 -5.7% -14.7% 85% 30% -13.5%
≤30d 1277 -4.1% -13.2% 87% 23% -11.9%
≤90d 1277 -4.1% -13.2% 87% 23% -11.9%
all 1277 -4.1% -13.2% 87% 23% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover92.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.2% 23% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 7% -20.3%
15% -29.1% 2% -28.0%
20% -36.1% 1% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$145 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$309
Realized−$6,552
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses1115 / 162
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1277 / 1278
History coverage24d
Avg bet$199
Trades / day92.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1277 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 51¢ 52¢ $300 $309 +$9 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $301 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $202 +$23 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $251 +$17 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $201 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $302 +$39 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $302 −$300 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $401 +$16 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $301 +$14 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $302 +$23 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $201 +$13 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $201 +$9 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $301 +$21 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $201 +$19 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $201 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $301 +$15 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $203 +$52 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $27 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $201 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $136 −$136 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $302 −$302 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $402 +$29 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $202 +$30 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $202 +$26 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $301 +$18 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $301 +$15 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $301 +$21 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $300 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $201 +$19 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $201 +$14 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $201 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $201 +$18 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $51 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $101 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $50 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $304 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $308.82 · official $308.82 (match) · 3500 history records