Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:37:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
57 0x57d8…a05a sports 87 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$50 (+6%) realized +$66 · open −$16
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate60%50W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day23.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$1
other 19% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 +0.4% -9.1% 60% 55% -3.9%
≤30d 84 +0.4% -9.1% 60% 55% -3.9%
≤90d 84 +0.4% -9.1% 60% 55% -3.9%
all 84 +0.4% -9.1% 60% 55% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 55% -3.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 54% -13.1%
15% -25.8% 42% -21.5%
20% -33.0% 36% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$66
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses50 / 34
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)84 / 87
History coverage6d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day23.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Game Handicap: OG (-1.5) vs GLYPH (+1.5) GLYPH 73¢ 68¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-6%)
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 1 Winner GLYPH 45¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $12 +$15 +123%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$4 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $15 +$9 +62%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $15 +$20 +134%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $15 +$9 +59%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 20 $15 +$16 +105%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $17 +$7 +41%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $15 +$12 +76%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $3 +$1 +34%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 +$6 +59%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $10 +$3 +32%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 20 $9 +$9 +97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $15 +$10 +67%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 20 $5 +$4 +70%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $12 −$12 -98%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 20 $5 +$5 +105%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $4 −$4 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $5 +$4 +90%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $14 −$13 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $8 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $6 +$2 +33%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $9 +$14 +158%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $20 +$2 +9%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $15 +$26 +172%
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As Jun 19 $5 +$2 +46%
Sobolieva vs. Olmo: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 19 $5 +$5 +105%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs So:sweet (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Jun 19 $5 +$2 +39%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$2 +32%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $5 $0 +10%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $2 +$1 +34%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $9 +$5 +57%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 +$7 +70%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $15 +$5 +34%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 18 $15 +$14 +91%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 +$6 +62%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 18 $13 +$12 +93%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) Jun 18 $12 −$12 -99%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $5 +$2 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Game Handicap: OG (-1.5) vs GLYPH (+1.5) BUY GLYPH 73¢ $11 1h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 1 Winner BUY GLYPH 45¢ $15 1h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner SELL Infinite 100¢ $27 1h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY Infinite 44¢ $12 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 13h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $25 13h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY 58¢ $12 14h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $36 14h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $24 14h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $15 15h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $15 16h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Under 100¢ $31 16h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 48¢ $15 17h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $24 17h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $27 17h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $4 17h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 56¢ $15 18h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $16 18h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $3 18h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $10 18h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $13 18h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $17 19h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 75¢ $10 19h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $15 19h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Under 100¢ $17 19h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $25 19h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 59¢ $15 20h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 50¢ $9 20h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof SELL Virtus.pro 100¢ $9 21h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 49¢ $12 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.34 · official $10.34 (match) · 139 history records