Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:40:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x57d8…a490 weather 110 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (180 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$249 (-7%) realized −$162 · open −$87
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate23%20W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day179.5pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% −$385
weather 22% −$157
sports 21% +$366
world 9% −$11
finance 7% −$47
politics 6% −$78
tech 1% $0
economics 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (180 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 -3.6% -12.8% 23% 19% -16.1%
≤30d 86 -3.6% -12.8% 23% 19% -16.1%
≤90d 86 -3.6% -12.8% 23% 19% -16.1%
all 86 -3.6% -12.8% 23% 19% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover179.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 19% -16.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.2% 19% -24.1%
15% -28.8% 17% -31.4%
20% -35.8% 14% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$13 · ×2.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized−$162
Unrealized−$87
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses20 / 66
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions24
Markets (closed)86 / 110
History coverage2d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day179.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 30¢ 24¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-22%)
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 48¢ 50¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+4%)
GV CD San José vs. Club The Strongest: O/U 4.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will Claude Code Commits be between 600.0k and 650.0k on June 30? Yes 22¢ 14¢ $11 $7 −$4 (-34%)
Will Erling Haaland score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 21? Yes 24¢ 11¢ $12 $6 −$6 (-54%)
Will T1 Qualify to the MSI 2026 Knockout Stage No 32¢ 10¢ $16 $5 −$11 (-70%)
Will Jacob Misiorowski win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? Yes 46¢ 49¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026? No 48¢ 50¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will Gavi win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 6¢ $9 $3 −$6 (-67%)
Will Egypt be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? No 74¢ 74¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026? No 22¢ 22¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Désiré Doué win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-33%)
Will Mark Smith be the Republican Nominee for SC-01? Yes 41¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+62%)
Will Christopher Taylor be the Democratic nominee for the Ann Arbor Mayoral Election? No 43¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June 20? Yes 15¢ 2¢ $7 $1 −$6 (-86%)
Will Cape Verde win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 2¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-89%)
Will Tori launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 47¢ 36¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-22%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 21? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-98%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 20? No 64¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-99%)
Will Vinicius Junior join Al-Nassr? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 20? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 20? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 20? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31? Jun 20 $22 −$4 -18%
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? Jun 20 $22 −$8 -36%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $114 −$12 -10%
Will the US federal government take a stake in Freeport-McMoRan Inc.? Jun 20 $16 −$9 -54%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $232 in June? Jun 20 $16 −$3 -18%
Will Mikel Brown Jr. be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 20 $21 −$7 -32%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 20 $17 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $20 −$1 -6%
Will Puffpaw launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $40 −$8 -19%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 20 $48 $0 -0%
Will Hurupay launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 20 $4 $0 -1%
Will 8+ matches go to extra time during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 20? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +38%
Tabi FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 20 $17 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $33 +$1 +4%
Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary ele Jun 20 $222 −$79 -36%
Will Eberechi Eze score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $7 +$3 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? Jun 20 $21 +$29 +137%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 19? Jun 20 $28 +$17 +60%
Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime s Jun 20 $50 −$3 -6%
Will Kai Havertz score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $7 $0 -2%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 19 $34 +$16 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 +$2 +194%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $3 +$6 +203%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $29 −$25 -84%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 19? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Map Handicap: OSG (-1.5) vs Dplus (+1.5) Jun 19 $29 −$29 -100%
World Cup: Scoreless Team? Jun 19 $34 −$5 -16%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 19 $34 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $21 +$28 +136%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $45 −$11 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals Jun 19 $24 −$13 -55%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $49 −$18 -38%
Rainbow Six Siege: Trippy Main Telecom vs RRX (BO1) - Asia Pacific Lea Jun 19 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Armando González: 3+ goals + assists Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 20? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 19? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 54.5 million views on day Jun 18 $49 −$1 -2%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Second half draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $48 +$1 +3%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $13 +$37 +285%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 19? Jun 18 $31 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 20? Jun 18 $66 −$21 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tori launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL Yes 48¢ $23 19m
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 1h
Will Tori launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL No 55¢ $26 2h
Will Tori launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 68¢ $34 2h
Will Tori launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY Yes 47¢ $24 2h
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $8 2h
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31? BUY No 22¢ $11 2h
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 5h
Will Cape Verde win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 7h
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? SELL No 30¢ $14 10h
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? BUY No 45¢ $22 10h
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31? SELL No 21¢ $10 10h
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31? BUY No 22¢ $11 10h
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 33¢ $8 11h
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 33¢ $9 11h
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 35¢ $18 11h
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 39¢ $19 11h
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 41¢ $20 11h
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 55¢ $6 11h
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 55¢ $22 11h
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 56¢ $28 11h
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 55¢ $28 11h
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 70¢ $35 11h
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 25¢ $12 11h
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 27¢ $14 11h
Will the US federal government take a stake in Freeport-McMoRan Inc.? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 12h
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $232 in June? SELL Yes 28¢ $14 12h
Will Mikel Brown Jr. be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? SELL Yes 30¢ $15 12h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on SELL No 75¢ $17 12h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? SELL Yes 40¢ $19 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.33 · official $72.34 (match) · 437 history records