Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:35:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
57 0x57d1…832b other 101 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+0%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate8%8W / 92L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$181per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$202
30 days−$205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$211
politics 36% −$8
sports 5% +$30
crypto 3% −$1
world 2% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 -6.0% -14.9% 0% 0% -16.1%
≤90d 92 +0.1% -9.4% 7% 3% -10.3%
all 100 -2.4% -11.7% 8% 4% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 4% -10.5%
10% -20.1% 4% -19.0%
15% -27.8% 3% -26.9%
20% -34.9% 2% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$3 · ×3.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses8 / 92
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)100 / 101
History coverage114d
Avg bet$181
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $26 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $27 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $30 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $195 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $226 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $231 −$201 -87%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $19 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $410 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $156 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $173 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $148 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $163 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $464 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $191 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $181 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 17 $165 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $346 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $388 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $171 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $177 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 13 $357 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $167 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $168 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $154 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $195 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $339 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $148 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $201 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $308 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $72 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $196 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 02 $160 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $155 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $168 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $209 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $199 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $159 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $171 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 22 $142 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $150 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $147 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $190 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $201 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 19 $169 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $161 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $155 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $158 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $145 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $34 1h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $26 1h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $26 4d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 4d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 4d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $30 8d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $30 10d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $18 10d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 11d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 11d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 11d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 11d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 12d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $30 13d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $30 14d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $19 18d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $19 18d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $200 19d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $200 22d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $156 22d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $156 23d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $200 23d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $200 24d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $173 24d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $173 24d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $148 25d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $148 25d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $163 25d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $163 26d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $154 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.98 · official $33.98 (match) · 294 history records