Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:48:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x57d1…dc9f sports 190 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$183 (-9%) realized −$182 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%40W / 133L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day15.3pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$119
7 days−$258
14 days−$97
30 days−$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$99
other 34% +$41
world 5% −$45
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)+9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 -7.3% -16.2% 21% 20% -31.6%
≤30d 173 +20.8% +9.3% 23% 23% -16.1%
≤90d 173 +20.8% +9.3% 23% 23% -16.1%
all 173 +20.8% +9.3% 23% 23% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.3% 23% -16.1%
10% -1.1% 23% -24.1%
15% -10.7% 23% -31.5%
20% -19.5% 23% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$11 · ×3.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$182
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses40 / 133
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)173 / 190
History coverage18d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day15.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 173 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 128 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $21 +$43 +206%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $41 −$40 -98%
Türkiye vs. United States: Draw at halftime? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -97%
Australia leading at halftime? Jun 26 $11 −$11 -98%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $5 +$20 +388%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24 Jun 25 $6 +$40 +652%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Czechia vs. Mexi Jun 25 $7 +$42 +581%
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $11 +$73 +650%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 24 $18 −$18 -98%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $6 −$6 -98%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 24 $9 −$9 -98%
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Jun 24 $10 +$21 +203%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 24 $14 −$14 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $43 −$42 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $6 −$6 -97%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -97%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $4 −$4 -97%
Panama leading at halftime? Jun 23 $14 −$14 -97%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $23 +$29 +122%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $13 −$13 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $14 −$14 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $4 −$4 -97%
Ghana leading at halftime? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -97%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $5 +$7 +140%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $6 −$6 -98%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 23 $18 +$36 +197%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $9 −$9 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 23 $7 −$7 -98%
Spread: France (-4.5) Jun 23 $6 −$6 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $8 −$8 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $4 −$4 -97%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $18 −$18 -98%
France vs. Iraq: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $9 −$9 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Jun 22 $6 −$6 -97%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $10 +$16 +161%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $8 +$27 +328%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $6 −$6 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $6 −$6 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $4 −$4 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 47¢ $41 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY 32¢ $21 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 2h
Australia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 2h
Australia leading at halftime? AND United States leading at halftime? BUY 6¢ $4 2h
Australia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan vs. Sweden end in BUY 6¢ $4 25h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 25h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 20¢ $5 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24 SELL 85¢ $46 25h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 AND South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1 BUY 29¢ $6 26h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24 BUY 11¢ $6 26h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 AND South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1 BUY 17¢ $6 26h
Mexico leading at halftime? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 27h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Czechia vs. Mexi SELL 86¢ $49 27h
Czechia leading at halftime? AND South Africa leading at halftime? BUY 3¢ $2 27h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Czechia vs. Mexi BUY 12¢ $7 28h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? AND Will South Africa win on 2026-06-2 BUY 4¢ $6 28h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 26¢ $11 29h
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 13¢ $11 30h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 19¢ $18 30h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY 20¢ $10 31h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Draw at halftime? AND Morocco vs. Haiti: Draw at BUY 13¢ $11 31h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 8¢ $5 31h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 32h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 32h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 AND Will Switzerland vs. Can BUY 16¢ $5 32h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 16¢ $6 32h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 33h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.54 · official $3.54 (match) · 314 history records