Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x57d0…85b0 world 31 markets active 0h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$471 (-13%) realized +$145 · open −$616
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%7W / 19L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1,450now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$17
14 days+$17
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 80% −$233
other 13% −$207
sports 7% +$50
weather 0% −$13
politics 0% −$4
culture 0% −$3
crypto 0% −$2
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-55.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +27.4% +15.2% 100% 100% +15.2%
≤30d 1 +27.4% +15.2% 100% 100% +15.2%
≤90d 4 +28.0% +15.8% 75% 75% +6.5%
all 26 -50.8% -55.4% 27% 27% +2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -55.4% 27% +2.8%
10% -59.7% 23% -7.1%
15% -63.6% 19% -16.0%
20% -67.2% 19% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late -61% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$111 vs −$30 · ×3.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$1,450
Realized+$145
Unrealized−$616
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses7 / 19
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)26 / 31
History coverage162d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 12¢ 7¢ $1,177 $637 −$539 (-46%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $504 $342 −$162 (-32%)
US x China Military clash before 2027? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $200 $250 +$50 (+25%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Over 74¢ 100¢ $104 $140 +$36 (+35%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 82¢ 81¢ $82 $81 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $60 +$17 +27%
Over $15M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 29 $132 −$131 -99%
Will Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026? Apr 29 $100 +$170 +170%
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Apr 29 $120 +$18 +15%
Will Trump cut off trade with Spain? Mar 18 $4 −$4 -100%
QatarEnergy resumes LNG production by March 14? Mar 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $240 end of March? Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 9, 2026? Mar 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on March 9? Mar 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar Mar 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Team Spirit qualify to the Main Event of ESL Pro League Season 23 Mar 08 $42 −$42 -100%
Will "Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale" be the #2 US Netflix movie this Mar 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 9? Mar 08 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 14, 2026? Mar 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Mar 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Individual taxation referendum be approved in Switzerland’s 8 Mar 08 $78 −$78 -100%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Mar 08 $38 +$38 +100%
Solana Up or Down - March 8, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on March 8? Mar 08 $0 $0 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 30 million views on day 2? Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ukraine re-enter Novomykolaivka by March 31? Mar 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by February 28, 2026? Mar 08 $200 +$111 +56%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by February 28, 2026? Mar 08 $200 +$309 +154%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 24 $185 −$185 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31? Feb 24 $200 +$117 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 82¢ $82 3m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $104 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $60 3h
Over $15M committed to the Printr public sale? BUY Yes 69¢ $41 49d
Over $15M committed to the Printr public sale? BUY Yes 69¢ $42 49d
Over $15M committed to the Printr public sale? BUY Yes 69¢ $49 49d
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $138 49d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $504 88d
Will Trump cut off trade with Spain? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 90d
Will Trump cut off trade with Spain? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 90d
Will Trump cut off trade with Spain? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 91d
QatarEnergy resumes LNG production by March 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 96d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $240 end of March? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 98d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $240 end of March? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 98d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $240 end of March? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 98d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $100 98d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $240 end of March? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 98d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $240 end of March? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 98d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $240 end of March? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 98d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $240 end of March? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 99d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $240 end of March? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 99d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $111 99d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $240 end of March? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 99d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $240 end of March? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 99d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $240 end of March? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 99d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $240 end of March? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 99d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $240 end of March? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 99d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $19 100d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 100d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 100d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,450.48 · official $1,461.22 (match) · 263 history records