Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:04:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x57cc…a37d other 216 markets active 1h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%17W / 199L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 29% −$4
other 21% −$5
politics 19% −$3
economics 9% −$3
crypto 9% −$1
culture 6% −$1
world 5% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 4 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
all 216 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses17 / 199
Open positions0
Markets (closed)216 / 216
History coverage169d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 216 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $49 $0 -0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Alex De Minaur win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $40 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 15 $44 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 23 $46 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 23 $106 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 23 $190 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 23 $168 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)? Feb 23 $102 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Feb 23 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 23 $49 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 23 $108 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 23 $98 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 23 $111 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 23 $94 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 23 $62 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 23 $340 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 23 $49 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 23 $102 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)? Feb 23 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Feb 23 $208 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 20 $172 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 20 $113 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 20 $161 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 20 $69 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 20 $265 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 20 $231 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 20 $98 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 20 $51 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 25, 2026 (ET)? Feb 20 $106 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 20 $139 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 20 $111 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Feb 20 $115 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 20 $4 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 17 $62 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 17 $53 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 17 $55 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? Feb 17 $55 $0 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? Feb 16 $164 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 16 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 16 $99 $0 -0%
Will the DHS shutdown last 10 days or more? Feb 16 $53 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 16 $156 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 16 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 16 $53 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 16 $106 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 16 $107 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 16 $56 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 16 $121 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 16 $52 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $49 1h
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 93¢ $49 8h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 92¢ $51 7d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 93¢ $52 7d
Will Alex De Minaur win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 97¢ $40 19d
Will Alex De Minaur win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 97¢ $40 19d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? SELL No 95¢ $44 33d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? BUY No 95¢ $44 33d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 92¢ $46 114d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 92¢ $46 114d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $48 114d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $48 114d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $1 114d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $52 114d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 97¢ $52 114d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $6 114d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $7 114d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 97¢ $17 114d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 97¢ $16 114d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 97¢ $6 114d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 97¢ $4 114d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 97¢ $4 114d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 97¢ $6 114d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 97¢ $0 114d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 97¢ $52 114d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 92¢ $49 114d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 92¢ $49 114d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 94¢ $49 114d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 94¢ $49 114d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 96¢ $51 114d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 811 history records