Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:05:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
57 0x57cb…53fd sports 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$162 (-2%) realized −$162 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate56%9W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$494per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$9
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$15
tech 32% $0
sports 3% −$138
crypto 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 -9.4% -18.0% 83% 17% -17.3%
≤90d 6 -9.4% -18.0% 83% 17% -17.3%
all 16 -18.3% -26.1% 56% 6% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.1% 6% -11.2%
10% -33.2% 0% -19.7%
15% -39.6% 0% -27.4%
20% -45.5% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 38% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% too few recent
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$29 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$162
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses9 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)16 / 18
History coverage149d
Avg bet$494
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Under 94¢ 94¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $13 −$13 -100%
LoL: Estral Esports vs RED Academy (BO5) - Circuito Desafiante Playoff Jun 04 $9 +$1 +8%
Spread: Fredrikstad FK (-1.5) Jun 04 $15 +$1 +10%
Spread: Kawkab AC (-1.5) Jun 04 $17 +$2 +10%
Spread: Elche CF (-1.5) May 18 $11 +$1 +5%
CF América vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 4.5 May 18 $14 +$2 +11%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Feb 21 $63 −$63 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on February 20 Feb 21 $22 −$9 -40%
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs FaZe Vegas - Game 2 Winner Feb 21 $81 −$81 -100%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Feb 19 $1,408 +$3 +0%
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 19 $1,368 +$1 +0%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Feb 19 $1,398 +$1 +0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Feb 19 $1,516 −$6 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Feb 19 $1,469 −$2 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Feb 19 $1,452 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Feb 03 $10 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $11 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? BUY No 92¢ $13 12d
Spread: Kawkab AC (-1.5) BUY UnionTouargaSports 91¢ $17 15d
Spread: Fredrikstad FK (-1.5) BUY Sandefjord Fotball 91¢ $15 22d
LoL: Estral Esports vs RED Academy (BO5) - Circuito Desafiante Playoff BUY Estral Esports 92¢ $9 29d
Spread: Elche CF (-1.5) BUY Real Betis Balompié 95¢ $11 35d
CF América vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $14 58d
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs FaZe Vegas - Game 2 Winner BUY Vancouver Surge 32¢ $81 115d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 30¢ $63 116d
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 96¢ $1,411 116d
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 96¢ $1,408 116d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $16 116d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 116d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $17 116d
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $591 116d
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $5 116d
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $774 116d
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $475 116d
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $892 116d
Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $982 117d
Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $418 117d
Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1,398 117d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 94¢ $1,510 117d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 95¢ $1,516 117d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1,468 117d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1,469 117d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on February 20 SELL Yes $5 117d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on February 20 SELL Yes $8 117d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on February 20 BUY Yes $22 117d
Will Mexico win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? SELL No 98¢ $1,452 117d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.23 · official $11.23 (match) · 41 history records