Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:11:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x57c9…7a91 crypto 438 markets active 0h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$31 (-1%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate86%376W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$67
7 days+$120
14 days+$120
30 days+$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 120 +5.9% -4.1% 88% 78% -2.0%
≤30d 125 +4.2% -5.7% 86% 74% -2.7%
≤90d 229 +0.8% -8.8% 85% 49% -8.3%
all 438 -0.1% -9.6% 86% 39% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 39% -9.4%
10% -18.2% 10% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 3% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses376 / 62
Open positions0
Markets (closed)438 / 438
History coverage135d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 438 Trades
no open positions (42 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 26 $8 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 26 $102 +$39 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 26 $92 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 26 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 26 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 26 $9 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 26 $8 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 26 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 26 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 26 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 25 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 25 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 25 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $9 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 25 $9 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 25 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 25 $11 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 25 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 25 $9 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $9 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 25 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 25 $9 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$2 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $8 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $92 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $9 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $9 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $9 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $9 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $9 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $9 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $9 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $9 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $9 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 948 history records