Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:56:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
57 0x57c8…1aa5 other 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$30 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%4W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$304now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$20
sports 10% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-42.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -36.0% -42.1% 27% 27% -8.0%
≤30d 15 -36.0% -42.1% 27% 27% -8.0%
≤90d 15 -36.0% -42.1% 27% 27% -8.0%
all 15 -36.0% -42.1% 27% 27% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.1% 27% -8.0%
10% -47.6% 27% -16.8%
15% -52.7% 27% -24.8%
20% -57.3% 13% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -55% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$13 · ×2.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$304
Realized+$30
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses4 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions12
Markets (closed)15 / 27
History coverage20d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 71¢ 100¢ $74 $104 +$30 (+41%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $88 $92 +$4 (+5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $66 $53 −$13 (-19%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $27 $16 −$10 (-39%)
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-9%)
Will England score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-27%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-99%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-99%)
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $28 −$23 -82%
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $39 −$10 -25%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $26 +$78 +305%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $71 +$32 +45%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $53 +$24 +46%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $20 +$15 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 71¢ $75 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 16¢ $9 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 26¢ $8 19h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 19h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 15¢ $26 19h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $18 21h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $20 21h
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $5 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $71 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $26 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $27 4d
Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 4d
Will England score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 4d
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 4d
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 27¢ $12 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $21 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 5d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $303.86 · official $303.86 (match) · 70 history records