Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:39:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x57c8…3d9b sports 449 markets active 2h ago coverage 37d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 37d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (74 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$22,947 (-15%) realized −$22,615 · open −$332
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate84%370W / 71L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$351per market
Trades / day74.2pace
Fees−$219est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$4,259now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 37d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$233
crypto 8% +$278
other 7% −$419
world 0% −$3
finance 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (74 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)+0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -28.5% -35.3% 67% 10% -20.5%
≤30d 305 -5.0% -14.1% 79% 10% -10.5%
≤90d 441 +11.1% +0.5% 84% 14% -9.6%
all 441 +11.1% +0.5% 84% 14% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover74.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.5% 14% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -9.1% 10% -18.2%
15% -17.9% 7% -26.1%
20% -25.9% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$603) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +29% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$82 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$4,259
Realized−$22,615
Unrealized−$332
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses370 / 71
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$219
Open positions9
Markets (closed)441 / 449
History coverage37d ⚠
Avg bet$351
Trades / day74.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 441 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mallorca Championships: Yannick Hanfmann vs Adolfo Vallejo Yannick Hanfmann 74¢ 76¢ $1,046 $1,076 +$30 (+3%)
Targu Mures: Luca Castelnuovo vs Franco Agamenone Franco Agamenone 78¢ 80¢ $1,014 $1,046 +$32 (+3%)
Targu Mures: Sergey Fomin vs Max Alcala Gurri Max Alcala Gurri 76¢ 78¢ $986 $1,018 +$32 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 93¢ 92¢ $512 $509 −$3 (-1%)
Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 48¢ 38¢ $480 $385 −$95 (-20%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery Arthur Fery 71¢ 76¢ $154 $166 +$12 (+8%)
Will Sweden be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 80¢ 86¢ $40 $43 +$3 (+8%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? Yes 76¢ $346 $2 −$344 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: Málaga CF O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $52 $0 +0%
Overwatch: Virtus.pro vs Al Qadsiah (BO3) - OCS EMEA Stage 2 Group Sta Jun 20 $20 $0 +1%
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims Jun 20 $999 +$1 +0%
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $999 +$1 +0%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) Jun 20 $93 $0 +0%
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $999 +$1 +0%
Denzel Dumfries: 1+ assists Jun 20 $1,112 +$1 +0%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $466 +$34 +7%
Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals Jun 20 $103 $0 +0%
Cody Gakpo: 2+ goals Jun 20 $1,240 +$2 +0%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 20 $4,576 +$4 +0%
Rainbow Six Siege: Imperial Esports vs Fluxo W7M (BO1) - South America Jun 20 $143 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $505 +$31 +6%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $330 +$233 +71%
Overwatch: Cheeseburger vs T1 (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stage Jun 20 $12 $0 +0%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Jamie Mackenzie vs Daniel Rinco Jun 20 $161 +$26 +16%
Overwatch: ZETA DIVISION vs ZANSIDE GAMING (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 G Jun 20 $682 +$1 +0%
Overwatch: Poker Face vs SuperBad (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stag Jun 20 $366 +$12 +3%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) Jun 19 $74 $0 +0%
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs DarkZero Esports (BO1) - North Ameri Jun 19 $999 +$1 +0%
Rainbow Six Siege: Shopify Rebellion vs For Fun Esports (BO1) - North Jun 19 $999 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 19 $990 +$10 +1%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: FORZE Esports vs Cyber Hero (BO5) - BetBoom Jun 19 $208 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising (BO3) - United21 Grou Jun 19 $365 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $15 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $90 $0 +0%
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs So:sweet (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Jun 19 $803 +$1 +0%
Valorant: RED Canids vs la Masia (BO3) - VCL Brazil: Group B Jun 19 $55 $0 +0%
Rainbow Six Siege: For Fun Esports vs Outlast (BO1) - North America Le Jun 18 $379 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Inner Circle Esports (-3.5) vs Spirit Academy ( Jun 18 $89 +$1 +1%
Rainbow Six Siege: Spacestation Gaming vs Five Fears (BO1) - North Ame Jun 18 $999 +$1 +0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage Jun 16 $407 $0 +0%
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw Jun 16 $912 +$383 +42%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-2.5) vs FUT Esports (+2.5) Jun 16 $720 +$1 +0%
Parma: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 16 $171 +$35 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 22? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on May 21? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 21? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on May 19? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $90,000 on May 21? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on May 22? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 22? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 25? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $72,000 on May 21? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 28? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 27? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: G2 Esports vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA League S Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Libema Open, Qualification: Mackenzie McDonald vs Niels Visker Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mallorca Championships: Yannick Hanfmann vs Adolfo Vallejo BUY Yannick Hanfmann 76¢ $498 1h
Targu Mures: Sergey Fomin vs Max Alcala Gurri BUY Max Alcala Gurri 76¢ $190 1h
Targu Mures: Sergey Fomin vs Max Alcala Gurri BUY Max Alcala Gurri 76¢ $190 1h
Targu Mures: Sergey Fomin vs Max Alcala Gurri BUY Max Alcala Gurri 76¢ $190 1h
Targu Mures: Sergey Fomin vs Max Alcala Gurri BUY Max Alcala Gurri 76¢ $190 1h
Targu Mures: Sergey Fomin vs Max Alcala Gurri BUY Max Alcala Gurri 76¢ $32 1h
Targu Mures: Sergey Fomin vs Max Alcala Gurri BUY Max Alcala Gurri 76¢ $4 1h
Targu Mures: Sergey Fomin vs Max Alcala Gurri BUY Max Alcala Gurri 76¢ $191 1h
Targu Mures: Luca Castelnuovo vs Franco Agamenone BUY Franco Agamenone 78¢ $35 1h
Targu Mures: Luca Castelnuovo vs Franco Agamenone BUY Franco Agamenone 78¢ $195 1h
Targu Mures: Luca Castelnuovo vs Franco Agamenone BUY Franco Agamenone 78¢ $4 1h
Targu Mures: Luca Castelnuovo vs Franco Agamenone BUY Franco Agamenone 78¢ $195 1h
Targu Mures: Luca Castelnuovo vs Franco Agamenone BUY Franco Agamenone 78¢ $195 1h
Targu Mures: Luca Castelnuovo vs Franco Agamenone BUY Franco Agamenone 78¢ $195 1h
Targu Mures: Luca Castelnuovo vs Franco Agamenone BUY Franco Agamenone 78¢ $196 1h
Will Sweden be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $4 2h
Will Sweden be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $4 2h
Will Sweden be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $4 2h
Will Sweden be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $4 2h
Will Sweden be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $4 2h
Will Sweden be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $4 2h
Will Sweden be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $4 2h
Will Sweden be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $4 2h
Will Sweden be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $4 2h
Will Sweden be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $4 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $4 8h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Mitch Raposo 100¢ $999 11h
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre BUY Gaston Bolaños 100¢ $999 11h
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: Málaga CF O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $4 12h
Overwatch: Virtus.pro vs Al Qadsiah (BO3) - OCS EMEA Stage 2 Group Sta BUY Virtus.pro 99¢ $11 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,258.59 · official $4,258.59 (match) · 3500 history records