Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T00:33:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

57
0x57c8…2ec4
crypto · 357 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$506 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$442 · open −$62
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$810
Realized−$442
Unrealized−$62
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses192 / 163
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)355 / 357
History coverage57d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day16.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 2 History 355 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$342
14 days−$342
30 days−$422
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $866 $804 −$62 (-7%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $91 $0 −$91 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Down 94¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on May 16? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 11.5 Over 22¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $42 $0 −$42 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Up 83¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Down 87¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? No 76¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 24? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 27? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Ethereum dip to $2,150 on May 16? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $1,278 −$341 -27%
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? May 29 $3 −$1 -26%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 27? May 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in May? May 27 $3 −$2 -58%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 25 $30 +$22 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 25 $2 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 24? May 24 $11 −$10 -94%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 23 $100 −$38 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 23 $9 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 23 $29 −$9 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 23 $20 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 23 $20 −$19 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 23 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 22 $153 −$89 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 22 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 22 $19 +$5 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 22 $102 −$59 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 22 $102 −$16 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 22 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 21 $202 −$28 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 21 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 21 $152 +$15 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 21 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 21 $71 +$11 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 21 $71 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 21 $61 +$10 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 21 $51 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 21 $1 +$3 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 21 $102 +$31 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 21 $31 −$8 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 21 $120 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 21 $102 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 21 $102 −$19 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 21 $20 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 21 $92 +$44 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 21 $72 −$18 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 21 $91 −$87 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 21 $81 +$12 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 21 $242 +$16 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 21 $102 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 21 $91 −$32 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 21 $47 −$18 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 21 $154 +$10 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 21 $71 −$70 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 21 $121 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 21 $122 +$30 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 84% −$577
world 8% +$482
other 7% −$373
tech 0% −$22
sports 0% −$10
economics 0% −$3
politics 0% $0
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 11h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 47h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $875 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 37¢ $876 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $23 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $12 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $13 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $13 12d
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 16d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 27? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 17d
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in May? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $665 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $300 19d
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $12 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $40 19d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $50 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 19d
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in May? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 20d
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 20d
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 20d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $5 20d
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in May? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 20d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $2 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 20d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 24? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $60 20d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $25 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -63.4% -66.8% 0% 0% -33.7%
≤30d 153 -7.1% -16.0% 59% 37% -13.3%
≤90d 355 -9.7% -18.3% 54% 34% -11.4%
all 355 -9.7% -18.3% 54% 34% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover16.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 34% -11.4%
10% -26.2% 20% -19.9%
15% -33.3% 12% -27.6%
20% -39.8% 7% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $810.26 · official $810.26 (match) · 1218 history records