Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:03:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x57c4…0b40 other 276 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate29%79W / 197L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 37% −$5
other 32% +$6
sports 16% +$3
crypto 9% $0
world 4% −$2
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -0.8% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 63 -0.4% -9.9% 5% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 172 -0.1% -9.6% 15% 0% -9.8%
all 276 +2.9% -6.9% 29% 1% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 1% -9.5%
10% -15.8% 0% -18.1%
15% -23.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -31.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses79 / 197
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)276 / 276
History coverage138d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 276 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $35 $0 -0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 15 $35 −$1 -3%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $22 $0 -1%
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? Jun 14 $16 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $5 $0 -5%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $20 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $26 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $8 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $13 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $29 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $23 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $27 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6AM ET Jun 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $44 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jun 05 $63 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $22 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $23 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $9 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $23 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $6 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $25 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $41 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $17 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $32 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $26 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $38 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $12 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $54 $0 -0%
Trump out as President before 2027? May 28 $39 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10AM ET May 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $21 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $36 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $34 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? May 21 $5 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $22 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? May 21 $8 $0 -1%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? May 21 $13 −$1 -5%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $8 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $9 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $17 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 20 $7 $0 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 20 $9 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $18 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $31 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $20 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $38 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 1h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 1h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 53¢ $10 2h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 52¢ $10 4h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $7 5h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $7 16h
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? SELL No 82¢ $10 19h
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? BUY No 82¢ $10 27h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $5 28h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 28h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 28h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 29h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $7 30h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $7 30h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $9 31h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $9 4d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $9 4d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $9 4d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $5 4d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $5 4d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $10 4d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $10 4d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $8 4d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $8 4d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $6 4d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $6 4d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $5 4d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 4d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $5 4d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1400 history records