Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:34:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
57 0x57c2…ba10 crypto 300 markets active 1h ago coverage 192d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$270 (-1%) realized −$270 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%145W / 153L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$153per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 192d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$2,580
sports 6% −$412
other 1% −$1
politics 0% −$72
tech 0% −$23
finance 0% +$3
economics 0% −$4
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 31 -33.7% -40.1% 39% 39% -39.0%
≤90d 40 -25.9% -33.0% 42% 40% -38.5%
all 298 -1.6% -10.9% 49% 46% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 46% -16.7%
10% -19.5% 40% -24.6%
15% -27.2% 31% -31.9%
20% -34.4% 23% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$97 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

192d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$270
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses145 / 153
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)298 / 300
History coverage192d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 298 Trades
no open positions (70 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 28 $138 −$138 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 28 $45 −$43 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 28 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 28 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 28 $199 −$190 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 28 $100 −$96 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 04 $78 +$11 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 04 $37 +$8 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 04 $37 +$8 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 04 $26 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 04 $52 +$35 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 04 $41 −$9 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 04 $9 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 04 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 04 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 04 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 04 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 04 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 04 $37 −$10 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 04 $37 +$50 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 04 $8 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 04 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 04 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 04 $52 +$50 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 04 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 04 $103 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 04 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 04 $25 +$8 +33%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $39 +$80 +206%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $101 +$77 +76%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $101 +$46 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET May 10 $129 −$73 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 10 $614 −$614 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET May 10 $297 +$275 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 10 $207 +$96 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 10 $621 +$28 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 10 $130 +$137 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 10 $52 +$76 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 10 $284 −$245 -86%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $598 −$590 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Mar 29 $100 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Mar 29 $120 −$58 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Mar 29 $136 +$76 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Mar 29 $203 −$13 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Mar 25 $29 −$28 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Mar 25 $21 +$8 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Mar 25 $67 −$46 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Mar 25 $98 +$21 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Mar 25 $29 +$19 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Mar 20 $40 −$40 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $138 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $45 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $199 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $37 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $63 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AN BUY 10¢ $19 24h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal O/U 1.5 AND Will England win on 2026-0 BUY 36¢ $80 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $21 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $27 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $15 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $11 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $16 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $14 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $30 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $26 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $31 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $88 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $10 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $72 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 842 history records