Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:33:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x57be…b73c crypto 162 markets active 3d ago coverage 4d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 3d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (924 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,956 (-17%) realized −$5,956 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -63% what you keep after slip
Net edge-63%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate16%96W / 513L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day924.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,913
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (924 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-56.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 609 -51.4% -56.1% 16% 13% -40.2%
≤30d 609 -51.4% -56.1% 16% 13% -40.2%
≤90d 609 -51.4% -56.1% 16% 13% -40.2%
all 609 -51.4% -56.1% 16% 13% -40.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover924.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -56.1% 13% -40.2%
10% ← realistic here -60.3% 11% -45.9%
15% -64.1% 9% -51.2%
20% -67.6% 8% -56.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -42% → late -61% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
18.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$45 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,956
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses96 / 513
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)609 / 162
History coverage4d ⚠
Avg bet$221
Trades / day924.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 609 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - December 25, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -112%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$2 -56%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 6, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$6 -92%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - December 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$4 +175%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $22 −$29 -130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $68 −$50 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$15 -156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $264 −$264 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$5 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $462 −$462 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $227 −$227 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 5, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 5, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 20, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 20, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$15 -185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $12 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $33 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $12 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $29 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $76 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $35 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $22 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $48 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $33 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records