Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:23:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
57 0x57bb…9302 sports 192 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,599 (+7%) realized +$1,621 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%102W / 86L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$280est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$360now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$158
7 days+$125
14 days+$127
30 days+$1,277
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$2,034
other 10% −$539
crypto 2% −$124
world 1% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +4.8% -5.2% 54% 54% -4.7%
≤30d 83 +15.4% +4.4% 55% 55% +4.5%
≤90d 188 +3.0% -6.9% 54% 54% -3.7%
all 188 +3.0% -6.9% 54% 54% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 54% -3.7%
10% -15.8% 53% -13.0%
15% -23.9% 48% -21.4%
20% -31.4% 42% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$91 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$360
Realized+$1,621
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses102 / 86
Est. fees paid−$280
Open positions4
Markets (closed)188 / 192
History coverage86d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
FathUnionSport vs. RS Berkane: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 45¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
HUS Agadir vs. RCA Zemamra: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 44¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Wydad Athletic Club vs. Olympic Dcheira: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 42¢ $100 $86 −$14 (-14%)
IR Tanger vs. Raja Club Athletic: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 44¢ $82 $81 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $102 +$75 +74%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $101 −$100 -99%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $102 +$120 +118%
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $102 +$98 +97%
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $96 +$46 +48%
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $101 −$100 -99%
Henan FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $93 +$61 +66%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $101 +$57 +57%
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $101 +$60 +59%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $99 +$75 +76%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $52 −$51 -97%
RCA Zemamra vs. OC Safi: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $72 +$79 +109%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $75 −$3 -4%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $101 −$100 -99%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $99 +$78 +79%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $58 −$57 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $102 +$111 +109%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $101 +$71 +70%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $102 −$100 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $100 +$110 +109%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $200 −$105 -52%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $95 −$93 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $100 +$59 +59%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $100 −$98 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $101 +$95 +93%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $101 +$98 +97%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 +$102 +101%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 +$142 +139%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 +$121 +119%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $101 +$102 +101%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $101 +$102 +101%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$99 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $87 −$85 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 +$87 +86%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 +$228 +223%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $151 +$52 +35%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $102 +$61 +60%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $102 +$116 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Tanger vs. Raja Club Athletic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $83 1h
FathUnionSport vs. RS Berkane: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $102 1h
Wydad Athletic Club vs. Olympic Dcheira: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $102 1h
HUS Agadir vs. RCA Zemamra: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $102 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 80¢ $177 16h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $101 17h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $102 17h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $222 17h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $102 21h
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $200 26h
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $102 27h
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $142 27h
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $101 28h
Henan FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $155 28h
Henan FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $93 31h
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 67¢ $96 31h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $102 43h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $159 43h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 63¢ $101 2d
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $161 2d
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $101 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $173 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $99 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $52 2d
RCA Zemamra vs. OC Safi: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $72 3d
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 54¢ $72 3d
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $75 3d
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $101 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $99 3d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $58 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $359.85 · official $359.85 (match) · 374 history records