Wallet analysis — Alpha Desk

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$1

7 days−$49

14 days−$49

30 days−$78

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	T1	52¢	26¢	$9	$5	−$5 (-49%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	Hanwha Life Esports	49¢	74¢	$0	$0	+$0 (+50%)
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5	Under	28¢	0¢	$39	$0	−$39 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 28?	Yes	3¢	0¢	$6	$0	−$6 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$10	−$1	-5%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5	Jun 09	$40	−$39	-98%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 09	$29	−$10	-32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 28?	May 28	$7	−$6	-94%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	May 16	$306	−$22	-7%
French election called by June 30, 2026?	May 14	$1	$0	-31%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

sports 96% −$70

other 2% −$1

crypto 2% −$6

politics 0% $0

Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	BUY T1	52¢	$9	1h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	SELL Hanwha Life Esports	48¢	$9	1h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	BUY Hanwha Life Esports	49¢	$10	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	47¢	$10	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	48¢	$10	1h
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5	BUY Under	12¢	$10	3d
Spurs vs. Knicks	SELL Spurs	33¢	$20	3d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5	BUY Under	52¢	$29	3d
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Spurs	47¢	$29	3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 28?	BUY Yes	3¢	$7	15d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	SELL Invictus Gaming	30¢	$284	26d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	BUY Invictus Gaming	31¢	$306	26d
French election called by June 30, 2026?	SELL Yes	1¢	$1	28d
French election called by June 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	1¢	$1	28d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-51.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-45.8%	-51.0%	0%	0%	-66.0%
≤30d	6	-46.0%	-51.1%	0%	0%	-27.5%
≤90d	6	-46.0%	-51.1%	0%	0%	-27.5%
all	6	-46.0%	-51.1%	0%	0%	-27.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

turnover0.5 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-51.1%	0%	-27.5%
10%	-55.8%	0%	-34.4%
15%	-60.1%	0%	-40.7%
20%	-64.0%	0%	-46.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.