Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:06:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x57b9…9050 other 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$3,176 (-33%) realized −$3,176 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate58%14W / 10L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$405per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$730
7 days−$3,137
14 days−$2,718
30 days−$2,718
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$3,823
sports 24% +$1,105
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +2.6% -7.2% 57% 39% -42.3%
≤30d 24 +4.2% -5.7% 58% 42% -34.9%
≤90d 24 +4.2% -5.7% 58% 42% -34.9%
all 24 +4.2% -5.7% 58% 42% -34.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 42% -34.9%
10% -14.7% 38% -41.2%
15% -22.9% 33% -46.8%
20% -30.5% 25% -52.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$695) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +22% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$153 vs −$486 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,176
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses14 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage8d
Avg bet$405
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $408 +$521 +128%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $150 −$67 -45%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $520 +$280 +54%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $40 −$4 -10%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,122 −$1,120 -100%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 +$5 +5%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$5 +5%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $101 +$21 +21%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$116 +114%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $471 −$465 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,117 −$1,117 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $695 +$53 +8%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $100 +$300 +300%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 −$85 -85%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $504 +$154 +31%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,671 −$1,000 -60%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $824 −$820 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $202 +$82 +41%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,009 +$419 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 84¢ $929 17m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $408 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 17¢ $83 33h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $35 34h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $7 34h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $45 34h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $4 34h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $6 34h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $30 34h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $6 34h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $17 34h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 46h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $35 46h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $22 46h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 46h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 46h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 46h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $520 47h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 45¢ $187 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 45¢ $24 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 45¢ $197 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 45¢ $36 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $672 2d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 84¢ $106 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 93¢ $105 2d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 79¢ $101 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 82¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 75 history records