Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:27:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x57b8…405b crypto 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (73 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$19 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate75%24W / 8L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day73.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (73 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -11.5% -20.0% 75% 47% +0.4%
≤30d 32 -11.5% -20.0% 75% 47% +0.4%
≤90d 32 -11.5% -20.0% 75% 47% +0.4%
all 32 -11.5% -20.0% 75% 47% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.0% 47% +0.4%
10% ← realistic here -27.6% 16% -9.2%
15% -34.6% 6% -17.9%
20% -41.0% 3% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.45 per $1 lost it wins $3.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$19
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses24 / 8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day73.0
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Down 71¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Up 99¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$6 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$3 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -90%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 106 history records