Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:48:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
57 0x57b4…64ca crypto 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 211d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$38 (-0%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate89%50W / 6L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$237per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$89
14 days+$89
30 days+$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$160
crypto 31% +$29
other 15% −$1
sports 10% +$81
economics 9% +$5
politics 1% +$1
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -7.4% -16.2% 73% 20% -6.8%
≤30d 17 -6.4% -15.4% 76% 18% -7.4%
≤90d 23 -4.7% -13.7% 83% 13% -7.9%
all 56 -3.3% -12.5% 89% 5% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 5% -9.8%
10% -20.9% 4% -18.4%
15% -28.6% 2% -26.3%
20% -35.6% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$42 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

211d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses50 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage211d
Avg bet$237
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $486 +$8 +2%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $497 +$16 +3%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $380 +$20 +5%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $103 +$27 +26%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $8 −$1 -17%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $16 −$5 -32%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $56 −$55 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $188 $0 +0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $500 +$5 +1%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $30 +$2 +6%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $194 +$6 +3%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $280 +$30 +11%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $56 +$44 +79%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 14 $143 +$3 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $509 +$2 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 21 $541 +$6 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 22 $394 +$3 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 18 $265 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 11 $128 +$1 +1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 01 $384 +$2 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 28 $257 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 21 $129 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2? Mar 18 $19 +$1 +4%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Feb 28 $182 −$180 -99%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 27 $195 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Feb 26 $389 +$1 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 24 $377 +$2 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 21 $574 +$1 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 21 $385 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 20 $192 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 6? Feb 09 $193 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 06 $382 $0 +0%
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more? Feb 02 $191 +$1 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $188 +$2 +1%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jan 21 $379 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 13? Jan 18 $189 +$1 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Jan 02 $544 +$3 +1%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Dec 22 $360 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 8? Dec 09 $186 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 7? Dec 07 $182 +$4 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 6? Dec 07 $182 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 5? Dec 06 $181 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 3? Dec 04 $180 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 2? Dec 03 $179 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 29? Nov 30 $178 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 28? Nov 29 $178 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 27? Nov 27 $178 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 26? Nov 27 $177 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 25? Nov 26 $175 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $495 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $97 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $97 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $195 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $97 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 97¢ $485 13h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 95¢ $12 13h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 95¢ $357 18h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 95¢ $23 18h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 19h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 20h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $56 23h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $103 23h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 23h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 23h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 23h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 23h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 23h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 23h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 23h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 23h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL No 94¢ $55 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL No 94¢ $134 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $174 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $14 26h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $500 38h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 94¢ $30 40h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 97¢ $194 41h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $80 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 220 history records