Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:24:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
57 0x57b4…aae2 crypto 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$54 (+2%) realized +$55 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate63%55W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 36d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$16
other 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 +4.6% -5.4% 63% 38% -8.8%
≤30d 87 +4.6% -5.4% 63% 38% -8.8%
≤90d 87 +4.6% -5.4% 63% 38% -8.8%
all 87 +4.6% -5.4% 63% 38% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 38% -8.8%
10% -14.5% 32% -17.5%
15% -22.7% 26% -25.5%
20% -30.3% 20% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$14 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$55
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses55 / 32
Open positions2
Markets (closed)87 / 89
History coverage36d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 21 $205 +$113 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 21 $101 +$24 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 21 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 21 $102 +$37 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 21 $294 −$82 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 21 $102 +$47 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 21 $103 +$70 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 21 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $41 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 20 $72 −$30 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 20 $20 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$9 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$10 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $23 +$13 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 20 $15 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 20 $12 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$7 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$4 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$3 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 20 $12 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 20 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 20 $12 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 20 $12 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 20 $12 −$10 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$8 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $23 −$22 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $93 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $69 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.36 · official $29.36 (match) · 248 history records