Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:02:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x57b4…b46b sports 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$23,702 (-21%) realized −$21,701 · open −$2,001
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate65%13W / 7L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,210per market
Trades / day34.8pace
Fees−$1,180est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$26,177now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$22,426
other 13% −$3,511
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)+5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +16.8% +5.7% 65% 65% -34.4%
≤30d 20 +16.8% +5.7% 65% 65% -34.4%
≤90d 20 +16.8% +5.7% 65% 65% -34.4%
all 20 +16.8% +5.7% 65% 65% -34.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.7% 65% -34.4%
10% -4.4% 65% -40.7%
15% ← realistic here -13.7% 60% -46.4%
20% -22.1% 50% -51.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$6,160) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -40% → late +74% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,779 vs −$6,723 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$26,177
Realized−$21,701
Unrealized−$2,001
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses13 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$1,180
Open positions16
Markets (closed)20 / 36
History coverage4d
Avg bet$3,210
Trades / day34.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? No 86¢ 84¢ $4,318 $4,193 −$126 (-3%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Under 61¢ 60¢ $3,050 $3,025 −$25 (-1%)
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Haiti 61¢ 60¢ $3,050 $3,025 −$25 (-1%)
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 0 Qatar? No 92¢ 90¢ $2,767 $2,722 −$45 (-2%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Scotland 73¢ 72¢ $2,726 $2,707 −$19 (-1%)
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Qatar 51¢ 52¢ $2,550 $2,625 +$75 (+3%)
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 1 Qatar? No 93¢ 92¢ $2,326 $2,289 −$38 (-2%)
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Virtus.pro 58¢ 100¢ $601 $1,036 +$435 (+72%)
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Under 63¢ 64¢ $991 $1,014 +$24 (+2%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $1,000 $987 −$13 (-1%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 78¢ 78¢ $972 $961 −$10 (-1%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Under 61¢ 60¢ $885 $878 −$7 (-1%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? No 91¢ 90¢ $617 $614 −$3 (-1%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 79¢ 78¢ $93 $93 −$1 (-1%)
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Power Rangers (+1.5) Power Rangers 21¢ 6¢ $21 $6 −$14 (-69%)
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yellow Submarine 44¢ 0¢ $1,707 $2 −$1,705 (-100%)
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner Power Rangers 12¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $2,811 +$2,189 +78%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 24 $6,112 +$3,972 +65%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $1,925 +$2,551 +133%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $204 +$301 +148%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 24 $1,754 +$805 +46%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $9 +$5 +54%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $2,156 +$1,260 +58%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $4,933 +$1,867 +38%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $9,704 +$5,296 +55%
Spread: England (-3.5) Jun 23 $5,030 +$1,220 +24%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $4,920 +$3,053 +62%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $159 +$314 +197%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $2,051 −$2,000 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $1,641 −$1,600 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $6,243 −$6,160 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $377 +$295 +78%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 21 $17,703 −$17,700 -100%
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs VP.Prodigy (+1.5) Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10,749 −$10,600 -99%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $9,108 −$9,000 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 78¢ $978 40m
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Scotland 73¢ $2,748 41m
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 79¢ $94 42m
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Haiti 61¢ $3,086 43m
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 61¢ $3,086 43m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 10¢ $5 46m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 10¢ $2 46m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 10¢ $0 46m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 10¢ $2 46m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 10¢ $1 46m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 12¢ $61 47m
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Power Rangers (+1.5) BUY Power Rangers 21¢ $21 48m
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos SELL L1ga Team 100¢ $10,083 52m
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 61¢ $895 53m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $1,018 56m
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Qatar 51¢ $2,587 58m
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Yellow Submarine 44¢ $183 2h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Yellow Submarine 44¢ $8 2h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Yellow Submarine 44¢ $262 2h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Yellow Submarine 44¢ $23 2h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Yellow Submarine 44¢ $361 2h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Yellow Submarine 44¢ $12 2h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Yellow Submarine 44¢ $141 2h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Yellow Submarine 44¢ $7 2h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Yellow Submarine 44¢ $13 2h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Yellow Submarine 44¢ $224 2h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Yellow Submarine 44¢ $6 2h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Yellow Submarine 44¢ $2 2h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Yellow Submarine 44¢ $473 2h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 56¢ $1,097 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26,176.78 · official $26,176.78 (match) · 140 history records