Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:27:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x57b2…fa39 crypto 100 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (134 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$208 (-4%) realized −$208 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate73%73W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day134.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$243
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (134 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 +10.4% -0.1% 73% 63% -14.3%
≤30d 100 +10.4% -0.1% 73% 63% -14.3%
≤90d 100 +10.4% -0.1% 73% 63% -14.3%
all 100 +10.4% -0.1% 73% 63% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover134.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.1% 63% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -9.7% 52% -22.5%
15% -18.4% 41% -30.0%
20% -26.4% 19% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$50 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$208
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses73 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)100 / 100
History coverage4d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day134.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 100 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 24 $45 +$23 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $36 +$13 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 24 $57 +$27 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 24 $35 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 24 $31 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 24 $15 +$7 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 24 $21 +$10 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 24 $35 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 23 $36 +$13 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 23 $51 +$11 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 23 $51 +$27 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$13 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 23 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 23 $51 +$23 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 23 $66 +$17 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 23 $57 +$49 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 23 $61 +$25 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 23 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 23 $164 −$149 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 23 $102 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 23 $81 −$81 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$14 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 23 $107 +$29 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$8 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 23 $35 +$28 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 23 $15 +$11 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$14 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 23 $15 +$10 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 23 $35 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 23 $56 +$17 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 23 $61 +$19 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 23 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 23 $85 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $41 +$15 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 23 $101 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 23 $96 +$19 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 23 $81 +$16 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 23 $76 +$23 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 23 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 23 $42 −$3 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 577 history records