Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:47:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
57 0x57b1…d427 other 95 markets active 0h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$401 (+0%) realized +$399 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate14%13W / 80L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$1,333per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$1,297now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$12
14 days−$25
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$97
politics 31% −$116
sports 7% +$407
culture 2% −$4
crypto 1% +$3
tech 1% +$2
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 66 +0.6% -9.0% 9% 2% -9.2%
all 93 +1.1% -8.5% 14% 9% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 9% -9.2%
10% -17.3% 9% -17.9%
15% -25.3% 9% -25.9%
20% -32.6% 3% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,589) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$7 · ×10.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$1,297
Realized+$399
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses13 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)93 / 95
History coverage108d
Avg bet$1,333
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $717 $719 +$2 (+0%)
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $579 $578 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $432 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $1,040 −$2 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,145 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $5,966 −$6 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $1,029 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $3,795 −$4 -0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $1,207 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $1,222 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $3,203 −$4 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 04 $551 +$1 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 04 $720 +$2 +0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $866 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $857 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $774 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $669 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $973 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $1,036 −$2 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 24 $1,248 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 23 $1,245 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,047 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $1,602 −$2 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,670 −$2 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $1,628 −$2 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $1,671 −$2 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,650 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $3,183 −$4 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $1,375 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $2,024 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? May 02 $5 $0 +1%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $1,387 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $2,803 −$3 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $1,629 −$2 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $2,812 −$3 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $4,083 −$5 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $2,883 −$3 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $1,589 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $2,967 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $2,717 −$3 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1,365 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $3,447 −$3 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $1,756 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 09 $1,578 −$2 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $1,614 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 07 $55 $0 +0%
Rockets vs. Pelicans Apr 07 $1,295 +$610 +47%
Will Bubba Watson win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 29 $1,188 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Mar 28 $1,201 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 28 $1,551 −$68 -4%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $1,316 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $578 0m
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $579 1h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $432 3h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $432 5h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $220 24h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $221 27h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $717 2d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $863 4d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $864 4d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,143 6d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,145 6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,020 6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,021 7d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,027 7d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,029 7d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $844 10d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $845 10d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,205 11d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,207 11d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,220 12d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,222 12d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,089 13d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,091 13d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,113 14d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,115 14d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,042 14d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,044 14d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $996 15d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $997 15d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $864 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,297.24 · official $1,297.24 (match) · 309 history records