Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:25:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
57 0x57b1…4b99 sports 259 markets active 6h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$12,579 (-6%) realized −$12,252 · open −$327
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%121W / 130L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$770per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$1,586est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4,473now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,175
7 days−$5,551
14 days−$5,690
30 days−$3,624
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$14,101
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -17.5% -25.4% 46% 46% -25.4%
≤30d 145 -5.9% -14.9% 50% 50% -13.2%
≤90d 162 -7.0% -15.9% 49% 49% -15.2%
all 251 -6.9% -15.8% 48% 48% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 48% -15.9%
10% -23.9% 48% -24.0%
15% -31.2% 48% -31.3%
20% -38.0% 48% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$1,000) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$713 vs −$769 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$4,473
Realized−$12,252
Unrealized−$327
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses121 / 130
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$1,586
Open positions8
Markets (closed)251 / 259
History coverage137d
Avg bet$770
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 251 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Chicago White Sox 32¢ 34¢ $600 $638 +$38 (+6%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Over 51¢ 54¢ $600 $632 +$32 (+5%)
Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Under 58¢ 57¢ $600 $595 −$5 (-1%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Over 56¢ 56¢ $600 $595 −$5 (-1%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Over 55¢ 55¢ $600 $595 −$5 (-1%)
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Chicago White Sox 35¢ 34¢ $600 $591 −$9 (-1%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 Over 58¢ 51¢ $600 $528 −$72 (-12%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Over 56¢ 28¢ $600 $301 −$299 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 29 $608 −$608 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Jun 29 $610 −$610 -100%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 29 $612 −$612 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 28 $609 +$568 +93%
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 28 $610 −$610 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 28 $609 −$609 -100%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 28 $607 +$346 +57%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 28 $608 +$427 +70%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Jun 28 $609 −$609 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 28 $609 +$615 +101%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 28 $610 −$610 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 28 $610 +$695 +114%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 28 $606 −$606 -100%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 28 $609 −$609 -100%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 28 $606 +$318 +52%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 28 $607 +$340 +56%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 27 $609 −$609 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 27 $609 +$591 +97%
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 27 $608 −$608 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 27 $609 +$545 +90%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 27 $609 −$609 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 27 $608 −$608 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 27 $607 +$377 +62%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 27 $608 +$503 +83%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 27 $607 −$607 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 25 $608 +$422 +70%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 Jun 25 $610 +$695 +114%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 Jun 25 $608 −$608 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $608 +$524 +86%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 25 $609 +$568 +93%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $609 +$641 +105%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 Jun 24 $608 +$427 +70%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 24 $606 +$329 +54%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 24 $608 −$608 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 24 $607 +$346 +57%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 24 $609 −$609 -100%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 24 $606 +$317 +52%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 24 $609 −$609 -100%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 23 $607 +$361 +60%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 23 $608 +$503 +83%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 23 $610 −$610 -100%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 23 $607 −$607 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $608 −$608 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $608 −$608 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 23 $609 −$609 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 23 $606 −$606 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $609 −$609 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 23 $609 −$609 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $608 +$524 +86%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 23 $608 +$512 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 35¢ $612 6h
Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 58¢ $608 6h
Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 55¢ $608 6h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 56¢ $608 6h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $609 6h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 50¢ $609 26h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 58¢ $608 27h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 35¢ $612 30h
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Cleveland Guardians 63¢ $607 30h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 55¢ $608 30h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 45¢ $610 30h
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $609 30h
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 45¢ $610 30h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $609 30h
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 63¢ $607 2d
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 65¢ $606 2d
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 64¢ $606 2d
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $609 2d
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 49¢ $609 2d
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 46¢ $610 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 46¢ $610 2d
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 61¢ $607 2d
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 54¢ $608 2d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 61¢ $607 2d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 49¢ $609 3d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 53¢ $608 3d
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 52¢ $609 3d
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 55¢ $608 3d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 56¢ $608 4d
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 52¢ $609 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,473.07 · official $4,473.24 (match) · 571 history records