Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:02:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x57b0…76f4 politics 252 markets active 1h ago coverage 41d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 41d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (80 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$81,041 (+16%) realized +$76,920 · open +$4,121
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate78%145W / 41L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$1,953per market
Trades / day79.5pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$66,024now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 41d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% +$15,775
world 35% +$4,465
other 15% +$5,898
crypto 11% +$2,109
economics 1% +$849
tech 1% +$552
finance 1% +$365
sports 0% +$258
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (80 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +1.9% -7.8% 85% 12% -8.0%
≤30d 127 +25.1% +13.2% 78% 28% -5.2%
≤90d 186 +26.7% +14.6% 78% 31% -3.3%
all 186 +26.7% +14.6% 78% 31% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover79.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.6% 31% -3.3%
10% +3.7% 18% -12.5%
15% ← realistic here -6.4% 15% -21.0%
20% -15.5% 12% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$1,907) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +27% → late +26% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$229 vs −$178 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×4.68 per $1 lost it wins $4.68
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$66,024
Realized+$76,920
Unrealized+$4,121
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses145 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions75
Markets (closed)186 / 252
History coverage41d ⚠
Avg bet$1,953
Trades / day79.5
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 75 History 186 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $5,954 $5,949 −$4 (-0%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes 63¢ 78¢ $2,593 $3,205 +$612 (+24%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 99¢ $2,999 $3,180 +$180 (+6%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $2,979 $2,980 +$2 (+0%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Elon Musk by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 99¢ $2,411 $2,689 +$278 (+12%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $2,451 $2,526 +$75 (+3%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 59¢ 62¢ $2,281 $2,433 +$152 (+7%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 99¢ $2,068 $2,269 +$201 (+10%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $1,970 $1,979 +$9 (+0%)
AI bubble burst in 2026? No 60¢ 81¢ $1,330 $1,773 +$443 (+33%)
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $1,499 $1,543 +$44 (+3%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? No 94¢ 95¢ $1,508 $1,526 +$18 (+1%)
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? No 83¢ 82¢ $1,522 $1,513 −$9 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 98¢ $1,293 $1,336 +$44 (+3%)
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? Anthropic 75¢ 82¢ $1,208 $1,312 +$104 (+9%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,271 $1,284 +$13 (+1%)
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $510 in June? No 84¢ 99¢ $1,014 $1,193 +$178 (+18%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 91¢ 96¢ $1,138 $1,191 +$53 (+5%)
Yoon out of custody before 2027? No 86¢ 90¢ $1,091 $1,135 +$43 (+4%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult J.D. Vance by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 98¢ $1,053 $1,112 +$60 (+6%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? No 60¢ 74¢ $903 $1,110 +$207 (+23%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? No 81¢ 79¢ $1,127 $1,105 −$22 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 92¢ 94¢ $1,030 $1,063 +$34 (+3%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 100¢ $918 $996 +$78 (+8%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $987 $995 +$8 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $1,969 +$29 +2%
Starmer out by June 21, 2026? Jun 22 $895 +$5 +0%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $988 −$931 -94%
Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30? Jun 21 $152 +$37 +24%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? Jun 20 $1,522 +$7 +0%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $668 +$29 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? Jun 19 $4,954 +$29 +1%
Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by December 31? Jun 19 $413 +$12 +3%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $11,326 +$144 +1%
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Jun 18 $2,192 +$1,461 +67%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $22,375 +$42 +0%
Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 18 $789 +$7 +1%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $12,267 −$74 -1%
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? Jun 17 $4,385 +$90 +2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $3,030 −$332 -11%
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? Jun 16 $152 +$6 +4%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Jun 16 $2,077 +$42 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $9,926 −$44 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 16 $157 +$38 +24%
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $2,772 +$28 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $2,387 +$18 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $1,476 +$8 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 16 $472 +$26 +6%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 15 $11,722 +$980 +8%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $556 +$12 +2%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $2,804 +$50 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $725 +$431 +60%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Jun 15 $13 −$12 -97%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 15 $2 +$235 +11975%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? Jun 14 $332 +$13 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $2,395 −$539 -22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $517 −$175 -34%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 14 $11,612 −$99 -1%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Jun 13 $186 +$32 +17%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? Jun 13 $276 +$21 +7%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $890 −$473 -53%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $696 +$270 +39%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 13 $2,373 +$63 +3%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? Jun 12 $1,546 +$49 +3%
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? Jun 12 $220 +$50 +23%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? Jun 12 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $332 +$448 +135%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 12 $1,585 +$197 +12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $670 −$312 -47%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $920 −$230 -25%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Jun 11 $912 +$2,701 +296%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $718 −$187 -26%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $1,613 +$1,230 +76%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $871 +$175 +20%
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? Jun 10 $1,441 +$64 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,928 55m
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $12 57m
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $12 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $12 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 25¢ $182 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 34¢ $111 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 34¢ $8 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 34¢ $50 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 34¢ $20 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 34¢ $64 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 34¢ $270 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $4 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $245 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $96 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 42¢ $210 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 41¢ $205 1h
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $124 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 47¢ $235 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 43¢ $183 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $11 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 48¢ $240 2h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 51¢ $255 2h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 56¢ $88 2h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 56¢ $1 2h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 56¢ $6 2h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 56¢ $4 2h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 56¢ $13 2h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $2,979 2h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $109 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66,024.09 · official $66,044.66 (match) · 3500 history records