Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:34:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
57 0x57af…81ce sports 162 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$1,370 (+13%) realized +$1,610 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%83W / 72L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$135est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$980now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,192
7 days−$399
14 days+$457
30 days+$1,621
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$1,176
other 18% +$435
crypto 3% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -22.7% -30.1% 36% 36% -19.1%
≤30d 152 +11.2% +0.7% 54% 52% +6.4%
≤90d 155 +10.4% -0.1% 54% 52% +6.2%
all 155 +10.4% -0.1% 54% 52% +6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.1% 52% +6.2%
10% -9.7% 50% -4.0%
15% -18.4% 48% -13.3%
20% -26.4% 46% -21.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$36 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$980
Realized+$1,610
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses83 / 72
Est. fees paid−$135
Open positions5
Markets (closed)155 / 162
History coverage32d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 155 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 51¢ 50¢ $400 $396 −$4 (-1%)
O/U 2.5 Rounds Under 38¢ 40¢ $200 $208 +$8 (+4%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Under 51¢ 48¢ $200 $186 −$14 (-7%)
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Derrick Lewis 22¢ 20¢ $150 $140 −$10 (-6%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Fluminense FC (-2.5) Fluminense FC 41¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) Spurs 56¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays Pittsburgh Pirates 57¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-16? Yes 51¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 2.5 No 43¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Spurs Spurs 54¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-28? Yes 66¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Real Madrid CF vs. Athletic Club: O/U 3.5 Under 60¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 24.5 No 46¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Pittsburgh Pirates 46¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Arizona Diamondbacks 47¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score No 63¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $405 +$299 +74%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: CR Flamengo (-1.5) Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 +$24 +79%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 14 $39 −$18 -46%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $76 −$52 -68%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $61 −$61 -100%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 14 $61 −$61 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Pablo Carreno Busta Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 −$1 -1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $254 +$272 +107%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $51 +$39 +76%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $51 +$45 +90%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $26 +$64 +250%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $25 −$1 -5%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $25 +$42 +165%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $61 +$62 +101%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $25 +$24 +93%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $51 +$29 +58%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $25 −$25 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $25 −$25 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $101 +$80 +79%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $101 +$60 +59%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $51 +$47 +93%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $101 +$77 +76%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $101 +$71 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 100¢ $704 16m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 20¢ $51 4h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $30 5h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $101 6h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 59¢ $101 6h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 56¢ $101 12h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 51¢ $203 12h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $304 12h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 38¢ $204 12h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 23¢ $102 12h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 56¢ $203 12h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 40¢ $102 34h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 81¢ $50 36h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 36h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 50¢ $25 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 48¢ $24 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 2d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 52¢ $51 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 56¢ $51 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $26 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 59¢ $51 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $67 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $25 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $25 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $50 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $25 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $980.15 · official $980.15 (match) · 371 history records