Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:38:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x57af…9c2b crypto 31 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate74%23W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day41.9pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$2
other 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -7.4% -16.3% 74% 19% -9.7%
≤30d 31 -7.4% -16.3% 74% 19% -9.7%
≤90d 31 -7.4% -16.3% 74% 19% -9.7%
all 31 -7.4% -16.3% 74% 19% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.3% 19% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.3% 10% -18.4%
15% -31.6% 6% -26.2%
20% -38.3% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses23 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day41.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $11 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $11 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +5%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $9 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $9 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $8 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $9 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $8 5h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $8 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $0 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 84 history records