Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T05:24:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

57
0x57ad…698b
sports · 7 markets active 2h ago
1.5score
+$110 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$114 · open +$216
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$766
Realized+$114
Unrealized+$216
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$355
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 3 History 4 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$114
7 days+$114
14 days+$114
30 days+$114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Australia 69¢ 94¢ $300 $411 +$111 (+37%)
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 32¢ $200 $241 +$41 (+20%)
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Yes 14¢ 32¢ $50 $114 +$64 (+129%)
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 43¢ 0¢ $329 $0 −$329 (-100%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Over 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $880 +$473 +54%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $334 −$329 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $103 −$28 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 98% +$268
other 2% +$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Australia 69¢ $202 1h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $204 1h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Australia 69¢ $101 1h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) SELL Australia 68¢ $586 1h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 1h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Australia 69¢ $606 1h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) SELL Haiti 95¢ $1,353 2h
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 4h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Haiti 61¢ $374 4h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Haiti 61¢ $506 4h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $334 27h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 7¢ $70 27h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 10¢ $103 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-65.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -61.6% -65.2% 25% 25% +1.0%
≤30d 4 -61.6% -65.2% 25% 25% +1.0%
≤90d 4 -61.6% -65.2% 25% 25% +1.0%
all 4 -61.6% -65.2% 25% 25% +1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -65.2% 25% +1.0%
10% -68.6% 25% -8.7%
15% -71.6% 25% -17.5%
20% -74.4% 25% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $765.90 · official $765.90 (match) · 13 history records