Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:35:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x57ab…ad7d sports 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$21 (-2%) realized +$7 · open −$28
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$384now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$39
other 10% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -11.4% -19.9% 25% 25% -5.2%
≤30d 8 -11.4% -19.9% 25% 25% -5.2%
≤90d 8 -11.4% -19.9% 25% 25% -5.2%
all 8 -11.4% -19.9% 25% 25% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 25% -5.2%
10% -27.5% 25% -14.3%
15% -34.5% 12% -22.5%
20% -40.9% 12% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$11 · ×3.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$384
Realized+$7
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions3
Markets (closed)8 / 11
History coverage3d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs Endless Journey (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs BIG Academy 50¢ 50¢ $193 $190 −$4 (-2%)
Bellucci vs. Svajda: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $187 $186 −$2 (-1%)
Will UnionTouargaSports win on 2026-06-28? Yes 27¢ $31 $9 −$22 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs SAW (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series P Jun 28 $139 −$3 -2%
Game 4: Any Player Penta Kill? Jun 28 $73 −$25 -34%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner Jun 28 $76 −$16 -22%
Map Handicap: Just Players (-1.5) vs OlyBet SB (+1.5) Jun 27 $10 +$3 +29%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger Jun 27 $75 −$6 -8%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Jun 27 $66 −$2 -2%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $57 +$83 +146%
Game Handicap: GL (-1.5) vs the bug (+1.5) Jun 25 $14 −$14 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bellucci vs. Svajda: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $190 16m
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs SAW (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series P SELL SAW 49¢ $136 1h
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs Endless Journey (BO3) - CCT Europe Chal SELL BIG Academy 49¢ $25 1h
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs Endless Journey (BO3) - CCT Europe Chal BUY BIG Academy 50¢ $30 4h
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs Endless Journey (BO3) - CCT Europe Chal SELL BIG Academy 49¢ $48 5h
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs SAW (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series P BUY SAW 49¢ $139 6h
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs Endless Journey (BO3) - CCT Europe Chal BUY BIG Academy 50¢ $80 7h
Will UnionTouargaSports win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 27¢ $32 21h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger SELL Misa Esports 50¢ $69 21h
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs Endless Journey (BO3) - CCT Europe Chal BUY BIG Academy 50¢ $65 23h
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs Endless Journey (BO3) - CCT Europe Chal BUY BIG Academy 50¢ $27 24h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs SELL ECHO 52¢ $63 24h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 63¢ $76 30h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 40¢ $57 43h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY ECHO 53¢ $66 43h
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs Endless Journey (BO3) - CCT Europe Chal BUY BIG Academy 52¢ $71 2d
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger BUY Misa Esports 53¢ $75 2d
Game 4: Any Player Penta Kill? BUY No 75¢ $73 3d
Game Handicap: GL (-1.5) vs the bug (+1.5) BUY the bug 22¢ $14 3d
Map Handicap: Just Players (-1.5) vs OlyBet SB (+1.5) BUY OlyBet SB 38¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $384.48 · official $384.48 (match) · 24 history records