Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:11:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
57 0x57aa…259d crypto 345 markets active 0h ago coverage 64d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 64d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,048 (+24%) realized +$4,097 · open −$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate32%110W / 229L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day43.8pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$244now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 64d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% +$20
other 20% −$26
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 218 -2.0% -11.4% 26% 15% -10.6%
≤30d 218 -2.0% -11.4% 26% 15% -10.6%
≤90d 339 -0.3% -9.8% 32% 22% -9.3%
all 339 -0.3% -9.8% 32% 22% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 22% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 14% -17.9%
15% -26.3% 9% -25.9%
20% -33.5% 4% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
0.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$9 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$244
Realized+$4,097
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses110 / 229
Open positions6
Markets (closed)339 / 345
History coverage64d ⚠
Avg bet$49
Trades / day43.8
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 339 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $25 $50 +$25 (+99%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Up 50¢ 50¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Up 50¢ 50¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Up 50¢ 50¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Up 50¢ 37¢ $25 $18 −$6 (-26%)
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+99%)
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Down 50¢ 63¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+26%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-99%)
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$12 +24%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$15 -30%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$14 -28%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$8 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$20 -40%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$5 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$17 -35%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$5 -10%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$14 -27%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$10 -20%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$20 -40%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$14 -27%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$15 -31%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$5 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$11 -22%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$5 +9%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$4 +7%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$2 +4%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$2 +4%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$11 +21%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$13 +25%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$31 +63%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$29 +58%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$13 -26%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$1 -3%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$7 -14%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$1 -1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$3 -6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$12 -24%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$11 -22%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$3 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $3 0m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $3 0m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $3 0m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $3 0m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $3 1m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $3 1m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $1 1m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $3 1m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $3 1m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $3 3m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $1 4m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $2 4m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $3 4m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $3 4m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $3 4m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $3 4m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $3 4m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $3 4m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $2 8m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $3 8m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $1 9m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $2 9m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $1 9m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $0 9m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $3 10m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $3 10m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $3 10m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $3 10m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $1 10m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $1 10m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $243.99 · official $249.80 · 3500 history records