Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:13:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x57a3…00ac weather 66 markets active 0h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-2%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate36%24W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 62% −$7
world 15% −$7
other 10% −$7
politics 7% −$3
sports 5% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +7.3% -2.9% 100% 50% -3.1%
≤30d 23 +0.0% -9.5% 52% 48% -6.5%
≤90d 66 -7.9% -16.7% 36% 29% -11.8%
all 66 -7.9% -16.7% 36% 29% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 29% -11.8%
10% -24.7% 26% -20.2%
15% -31.9% 18% -28.0%
20% -38.6% 12% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses24 / 42
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)66 / 66
History coverage86d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 66 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 23? Jun 23 $72 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $65 +$7 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 4? Jun 04 $10 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 3? Jun 03 $10 +$3 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 3? Jun 03 $10 −$5 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 3? Jun 03 $0 $0 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 2? Jun 02 $10 +$3 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 2? Jun 02 $10 −$3 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 2? Jun 02 $10 −$2 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 1? Jun 01 $10 +$7 +68%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 1? Jun 01 $10 −$3 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on May 31? Jun 01 $10 +$11 +106%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 31? May 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on May 30? May 31 $10 +$4 +37%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $5 $0 -4%
Will AIK win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on May 30? May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on May 29? May 30 $10 +$4 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 29? May 30 $10 +$5 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 29? May 30 $10 +$6 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on May 29? May 30 $10 +$15 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on May 29? May 29 $10 −$8 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on May 24? May 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on May 23? May 23 $10 +$25 +245%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on May 22? May 22 $9 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 21? May 21 $10 −$7 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 21? May 21 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on May 16? May 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on May 14? May 14 $10 −$9 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on May 7? May 07 $6 +$6 +98%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 7? May 07 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on May 6? May 06 $6 +$3 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 25°C on May 4? May 04 $6 +$3 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on May 4? May 04 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on May 3? May 03 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 1? May 01 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on April 29? Apr 29 $10 +$3 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 29? Apr 29 $10 +$6 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 29? Apr 29 $10 −$9 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on April 29? Apr 29 $8 −$5 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 29? Apr 29 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 22? Apr 22 $4 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on April 12? Apr 13 $90 +$16 +18%
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect Apr 02 $13 −$1 -8%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 02 $12 −$1 -8%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? Apr 02 $7 $0 +2%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? Apr 02 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Apr 02 $8 $0 -5%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 02 $9 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 23? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 7m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 23? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 8m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 23? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 12m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 23? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 18m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 23? BUY Yes 96¢ $72 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 89¢ $65 5d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 4? SELL No 66¢ $9 19d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 4? BUY No 70¢ $10 19d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 4? BUY No 35¢ $10 19d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 3? SELL No 42¢ $6 20d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 3? BUY No 74¢ $10 20d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 3? BUY No 73¢ $10 20d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 3? BUY No 74¢ $0 20d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 2? BUY No 74¢ $10 21d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 2? SELL No 47¢ $7 21d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 2? BUY No 62¢ $10 21d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 2? SELL No 56¢ $8 21d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 2? BUY No 69¢ $10 21d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 1? SELL No 54¢ $7 22d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 1? BUY No 73¢ $10 22d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 1? BUY No 59¢ $9 22d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 1? BUY No 49¢ $1 22d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 31? BUY No 57¢ $10 23d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on May 31? BUY No 47¢ $8 23d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on May 31? BUY No 48¢ $2 23d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on May 30? SELL No 100¢ $14 23d
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-05-31? SELL Yes 61¢ $5 23d
Will AIK win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 23d
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 23d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on May 30? BUY No 72¢ $10 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.19 · official $0.00 (match) · 210 history records