Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:46:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
57 0x579c…ff45 crypto 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$226 (+11%) realized +$286 · open −$60
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate93%13W / 1L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day34.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% +$182
sports 9% +$33
other 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +19.8% +8.3% 93% 36% +3.2%
≤30d 14 +19.8% +8.3% 93% 36% +3.2%
≤90d 14 +19.8% +8.3% 93% 36% +3.2%
all 14 +19.8% +8.3% 93% 36% +3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.3% 36% +3.2%
10% ← realistic here -2.0% 36% -6.7%
15% -11.5% 36% -15.7%
20% -20.2% 21% -23.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$100 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.75 per $1 lost it wins $3.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$286
Unrealized−$60
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses13 / 1
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day34.0
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes Kiwoom Heroes 38¢ 0¢ $61 $1 −$60 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 21 $103 +$89 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 21 $103 +$58 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Yuito Suzuki: 2+ shots Jun 21 $55 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 21 $144 +$56 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 21 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 21 $102 +$36 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 21 $316 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 21 $204 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 21 $406 +$23 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 21 $101 +$3 +2%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $55 $0 +1%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $67 +$92 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 21 $100 +$4 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $144 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $138 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $102 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $101 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $90 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $105 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $104 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $98 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $106 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $92 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $101 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $122 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $113 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $103 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $101 3h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Kiwoom Heroes 38¢ $62 3h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $56 3h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) SELL Japan 52¢ $159 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.72 · official $0.72 (match) · 42 history records