Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:23:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
57 0x579a…b0a7 sports 185 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$445 (+5%) realized +$411 · open +$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate42%70W / 98L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$60est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$1,068now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$972
7 days+$345
14 days+$322
30 days+$322
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$28
sports 39% +$559
politics 9% +$17
crypto 6% +$11
world 3% −$235
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 136 +4.6% -5.4% 39% 38% -3.7%
≤30d 146 +2.6% -7.1% 40% 38% -4.1%
≤90d 168 +1.6% -8.1% 42% 38% -4.1%
all 168 +1.6% -8.1% 42% 38% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 38% -4.1%
10% -16.9% 38% -13.2%
15% -24.9% 36% -21.6%
20% -32.3% 31% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$35 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$1,068
Realized+$411
Unrealized+$34
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses70 / 98
Est. fees paid−$60
Open positions17
Markets (closed)168 / 185
History coverage56d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $500 $517 +$17 (+3%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 47¢ 74¢ $150 $238 +$88 (+59%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 20¢ $75 $62 −$13 (-18%)
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Mexico 23¢ 28¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+20%)
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score No 69¢ 62¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 Korea Republic? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+50%)
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-30%)
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $18 $10 −$8 (-44%)
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $15 $9 −$6 (-39%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Over 66¢ 40¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-39%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Neither team to score first? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 92 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $15 +$13 +86%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$58 +57%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $76 +$126 +165%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $15 +$17 +114%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $40 +$12 +31%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $56 −$55 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 +$99 +388%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $39 +$207 +531%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $71 −$70 -98%
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) Jun 18 $13 −$13 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -99%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $8 +$106 +1290%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $183 +$187 +103%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$5 +48%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $30 +$20 +67%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $97 +$164 +169%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $16 +$72 +442%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $20 +$35 +173%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 +$19 +122%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $75 −$73 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $40 +$20 +50%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Panama (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $86 +$120 +138%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 17 $46 −$45 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 +$15 +36%
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $22 −$21 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 1m
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 9m
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 10m
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $36 11m
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 43m
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $25 44m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 69¢ $20 50m
Korea Republic leading at halftime? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 6¢ $19 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $10 1h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 23¢ $51 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $152 1h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 4h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 53¢ $15 5h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 5h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 5h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 82¢ $53 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 13¢ $41 6h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $20 6h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $40 6h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 7h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $15 7h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 37¢ $15 7h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,067.64 · official $1,064.88 (match) · 360 history records