Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:01:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
57 0x5792…8eed crypto 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 540d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate78%43W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$6
crypto 7% +$1
tech 2% +$1
sports 2% −$9
politics 1% $0
economics 1% $0
world 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 5 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 55 -2.9% -12.2% 78% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 0% -9.8%
10% -20.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -28.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

540d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses43 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage540d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 03 $37 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April? May 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Apr 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $16 in March? Apr 01 $35 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? Mar 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in February? Mar 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in February? Mar 03 $41 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Feb 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 in December? Jan 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 01 $27 $0 +2%
Will Solana reach $250 in November? Dec 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in October? Nov 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in October? Nov 04 $19 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 04 $22 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in September? Oct 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September? Oct 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Sep 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.0 in July? Aug 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Aug 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in July? Aug 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June? Jul 03 $13 $0 +0%
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May? Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in May? Jun 09 $11 $0 +0%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 04 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 04 $3 $0 +1%
Mike Waltz out of Trump administration before May? May 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? May 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May? May 04 $10 $0 +1%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 04 $10 $0 +1%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 21 $5,756 −$6 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Apr 02 $6 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in March? Apr 02 $10 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Oregon win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $22 $0 -1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Mar 17 $54 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 04 $15 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 04 $31 $0 +0%
Will Torino win the Serie A? Feb 21 $14 $0 -0%
Will $Trump FDV be $15-20b on Feb 1? Feb 21 $14 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $140 by January 31, 2025? Feb 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will Julius Randle lead the NBA in scoring? Feb 14 $23 $0 -0%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win La Liga? Jan 22 $11 −$5 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $44 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $37 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $16 61d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April? BUY No 100¢ $24 62d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $10 91d
Will Chainlink reach $16 in March? BUY No 100¢ $35 93d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? BUY No 100¢ $3 122d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in February? BUY No 100¢ $10 122d
Will XRP reach $3.20 in February? BUY No 100¢ $41 122d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 149d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $38 150d
Will Solana reach $200 in December? BUY No 100¢ $15 182d
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? BUY Yes 98¢ $27 182d
Will Solana reach $250 in November? BUY No 100¢ $30 211d
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in October? BUY No 100¢ $6 241d
Will XRP reach $3.50 in October? BUY No 100¢ $19 241d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $22 242d
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in September? BUY No 100¢ $16 272d
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $23 272d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? BUY No 100¢ $7 300d
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $22 301d
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $22 301d
Will XRP reach $5.0 in July? BUY No 100¢ $6 332d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? BUY No 100¢ $19 333d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in July? BUY No 100¢ $24 333d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June? BUY No 100¢ $13 362d
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 392d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 393d
Will Solana reach $250 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 394d
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May? BUY No 99¢ $7 423d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.69 · official $43.69 (match) · 118 history records