Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:49:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x578e…ae91 weather 107 markets active 2h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$158 (-10%) realized −$161 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate50%53W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$52
7 days−$55
14 days−$72
30 days−$226
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 53% −$138
sports 24% −$61
other 16% +$7
world 5% +$2
politics 1% +$1
crypto 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -12.0% -20.4% 50% 42% -20.0%
≤30d 93 -10.0% -18.5% 46% 39% -24.3%
≤90d 106 -8.0% -16.8% 50% 40% -20.3%
all 106 -8.0% -16.8% 50% 40% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 40% -20.3%
10% -24.8% 32% -27.9%
15% -32.0% 27% -34.9%
20% -38.7% 17% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$11 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$161
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses53 / 53
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)106 / 107
History coverage38d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Yes 34¢ 48¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $12 +$5 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $9 +$4 +46%
France leading at halftime? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
France to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 16 $6 +$3 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 16 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $16 −$14 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 −$13 -87%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $6 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -98%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $8 +$13 +158%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $15 −$14 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $16 −$15 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $16 +$5 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -98%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $27 +$10 +38%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 +$3 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $15 −$6 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 +$25 +162%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $7 +$2 +31%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $2 −$1 -56%
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Jun 13 $8 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 −$7 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $36 +$4 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $25 +$15 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 12 $16 +$30 +191%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 −$9 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $16 −$15 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $15 +$15 +95%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$7 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $16 +$36 +235%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $15 −$15 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 −$3 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 8? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 5? Jun 08 $11 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 5? Jun 08 $41 −$27 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 5? Jun 05 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $23 +$10 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 3? Jun 04 $26 −$7 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 34¢ $7 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $10 15h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 99¢ $17 15h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 71¢ $12 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $9 26h
France to score first vs. Senegal? BUY Yes 70¢ $6 33h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 30¢ $6 33h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 39h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 39h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $8 45h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 45h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 82¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 26¢ $16 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 80¢ $18 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 38¢ $15 2d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 38¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 44¢ $15 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 72¢ $10 3d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL No 100¢ $21 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $16 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 75¢ $16 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 48¢ $13 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 34¢ $9 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 51¢ $17 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 55¢ $15 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.98 · official $9.98 (match) · 276 history records