Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:09:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
57 0x578d…3565 sports 444 markets active 1h ago coverage 518d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-1%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%228W / 215L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$3
other 10% −$11
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 443 +4.4% -5.5% 51% 51% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 51% -10.2%
10% -14.6% 49% -18.8%
15% -22.8% 42% -26.6%
20% -30.4% 35% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

518d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses228 / 215
Open positions1
Markets (closed)443 / 444
History coverage518d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 443 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Apr 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Celtics vs. Nets Nov 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Warriors vs. Kings Nov 15 $5 +$9 +173%
Thunder vs. Trail Blazers Nov 15 $6 +$12 +195%
Suns vs. Clippers Nov 15 $5 +$9 +178%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Nov 15 $6 +$16 +270%
Hornets vs. Bucks Nov 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Warriors vs. Spurs Nov 14 $6 −$6 -100%
76ers vs. Pistons Nov 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Heat vs. Knicks Nov 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Raptors vs. Nets Nov 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Knicks Nov 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Pacers vs. Warriors Nov 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Raptors vs. 76ers Nov 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Bulls vs. Cavaliers Nov 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Nets vs. Pacers Nov 06 $6 +$9 +152%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Nov 06 $6 +$10 +170%
Spurs vs. Suns Nov 06 $6 +$12 +203%
76ers vs. Cavaliers Nov 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Jazz vs. Pistons Nov 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Bucks vs. Pacers Nov 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Heat vs. Lakers Nov 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Raptors Nov 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Bulls vs. Knicks Nov 02 $6 −$6 -100%
76ers vs. Nets Nov 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Nov 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Mavericks vs. Pistons Nov 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Rockets vs. Celtics Nov 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Hornets Nov 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Celtics vs. 76ers Nov 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Warriors vs. Trail Blazers Oct 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Jazz vs. Kings Oct 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Lakers Oct 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Nuggets vs. Warriors Oct 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Pacers vs. Thunder Jun 23 $42 −$42 -100%
Knicks vs. Pacers Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Pacers vs. Thunder Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Thunder vs. Pacers Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Nuggets vs. Thunder Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Pacers vs. Thunder Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Thunder vs. Pacers Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Knicks vs. Pacers Jun 23 $5 +$6 +113%
Pacers vs. Knicks Jun 23 $3 +$24 +788%
Pacers vs. Thunder Jun 23 $10 +$35 +354%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $37 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 71d
Celtics vs. Nets BUY Nets 19¢ $6 213d
Hornets vs. Bucks BUY Hornets 32¢ $6 217d
Warriors vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 58¢ $6 218d
76ers vs. Pistons BUY 76ers 34¢ $6 218d
Heat vs. Knicks BUY Heat 34¢ $6 218d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers BUY Raptors 27¢ $6 219d
Raptors vs. Nets BUY Nets $2 220d
Grizzlies vs. Knicks BUY Grizzlies 23¢ $3 220d
Pacers vs. Warriors BUY Pacers 26¢ $6 222d
Raptors vs. 76ers BUY Raptors 37¢ $6 223d
Suns vs. Clippers BUY Suns 36¢ $5 223d
Bulls vs. Cavaliers BUY Bulls 26¢ $5 223d
Thunder vs. Trail Blazers SELL Trail Blazers 87¢ $7 226d
Warriors vs. Kings SELL Kings 85¢ $6 226d
Thunder vs. Trail Blazers BUY Trail Blazers 32¢ $6 226d
Warriors vs. Kings BUY Kings 34¢ $5 226d
Nets vs. Pacers SELL Nets 85¢ $15 226d
Nets vs. Pacers BUY Nets 34¢ $6 226d
76ers vs. Cavaliers BUY 76ers 12¢ $5 226d
Jazz vs. Pistons BUY Jazz 20¢ $8 226d
Bucks vs. Pacers BUY Pacers 29¢ $6 228d
Heat vs. Lakers BUY Heat 36¢ $6 230d
Spurs vs. Suns BUY Suns 33¢ $6 230d
Grizzlies vs. Raptors BUY Grizzlies 38¢ $6 230d
Bulls vs. Knicks BUY Bulls 30¢ $6 230d
76ers vs. Nets BUY Nets 35¢ $6 230d
Hawks vs. Cavaliers BUY Hawks 33¢ $6 230d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.82 · official $35.82 (match) · 938 history records