Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:43:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x578d…fbb3 sports 468 markets active 105d ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 229d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$313,728 (+12%) realized +$313,728 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate60%283W / 185L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$5,565per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$10,620
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$72,336
other 10% +$22,668
crypto 2% +$14,972
culture 2% +$124,218
tech 1% +$2,200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 -23.1% -30.4% 70% 30% -41.2%
≤90d 10 -23.1% -30.4% 70% 30% -41.2%
all 468 -6.9% -15.8% 60% 45% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.8% 45% -1.3%
10% ← realistic here -23.8% 34% -10.8%
15% -31.2% 27% -19.4%
20% -37.9% 23% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$6,573) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,829 vs −$3,049 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$313,728
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses283 / 185
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)468 / 468
History coverage230d ⚠
Avg bet$5,565
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 468 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Max Verstappen finish third in the 2025 F1 Drivers Championship? Jun 14 $1,080 −$1,080 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jun 14 $1,864 −$1,864 -100%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 14 $9,556 −$9,556 -100%
Will Tottenham finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier Leag Jun 14 $288 +$12 +4%
Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Victoria Mboko Jun 14 $720 +$133 +18%
Will Manchester United finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Prem Jun 14 $1,004 +$28 +3%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? Jun 14 $1,471 +$176 +12%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 14 $1,735 +$72 +4%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Jun 14 $4,016 +$816 +20%
Will Napoli finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season? Jun 14 $8,604 +$644 +8%
Will Robert Lewandowski be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga Mar 16 $4,769 +$410 +9%
Will Inter finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season? Jan 27 $10,694 +$1,218 +11%
Kings vs. Cavaliers Jan 25 $580 +$145 +25%
49ers vs. Seahawks Jan 24 $534 +$46 +9%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premi Jan 05 $116 +$13 +11%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 05 $799 +$469 +59%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 05 $33,672 −$110 -0%
Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31? Jan 01 $4,813 +$364 +8%
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 in 2025? Jan 01 $21,322 +$1,938 +9%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 22 $24,770 +$2,463 +10%
Will Red Bull Racing finish second in the 2025 Constructors' Champions Dec 14 $13,400 +$648 +5%
Will Ferrari finish second in the 2025 Constructors' Championship? Dec 07 $829 −$829 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Dec 07 $1,130 +$140 +12%
Clippers vs. Lakers Nov 27 $1,040 +$90 +9%
Will France win UEFA Group D for 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 24 $77 +$6 +8%
Will George Russell finish third in the 2025 F1 Drivers Championship? Nov 24 $833 +$124 +15%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-09? Nov 10 $39,161 +$799 +2%
Warriors vs. Nuggets Nov 09 $4,567 +$136 +3%
Thunder vs. Clippers Nov 07 $5,809 +$180 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026? Nov 05 $23,421 +$15,047 +64%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo not be traded? Oct 30 $317 +$60 +19%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 10 $14,006 +$328 +2%
Will LeBron James be traded this offseason? Oct 10 $1,745 +$108 +6%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 10 $62,617 +$124,218 +198%
Guardians vs. Twins Sep 22 $545 +$796 +146%
Giants vs. Dodgers Sep 22 $740 +$1,350 +182%
Nationals vs. Mets Sep 22 $752 +$1,781 +237%
Steelers vs. Patriots Sep 22 $2,271 +$771 +34%
Colts vs. Titans Sep 22 $5,779 +$347 +6%
Raiders vs. Commanders Sep 22 $7,163 +$1,942 +27%
Bengals vs. Vikings Sep 22 $16,212 +$1,255 +8%
Athletics vs. Pirates Sep 22 $103 −$103 -100%
Cubs vs. Reds Sep 22 $482 −$482 -100%
Blue Jays vs. Royals Sep 22 $320 −$320 -100%
Yankees vs. Orioles Sep 22 $460 −$460 -100%
Guardians vs. Twins Sep 22 $575 −$575 -100%
Jets vs. Buccaneers Sep 22 $405 −$405 -100%
Mariners vs. Astros Sep 22 $1,187 −$1,187 -100%
Giants vs. Dodgers Sep 22 $3,308 −$3,308 -100%
Marlins vs. Rangers Sep 22 $4,099 −$4,099 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Robert Lewandowski be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga SELL No 99¢ $200 104d
Will Robert Lewandowski be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga SELL No 99¢ $1 104d
Will Robert Lewandowski be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga SELL No 99¢ $0 106d
Will Robert Lewandowski be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga SELL No 99¢ $52 106d
Will Robert Lewandowski be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga SELL No 99¢ $7 107d
Will Robert Lewandowski be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga SELL No 99¢ $9 107d
Will Robert Lewandowski be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga SELL No 99¢ $1 107d
Will Robert Lewandowski be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga SELL No 99¢ $4 107d
Will Robert Lewandowski be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga SELL No 99¢ $5 107d
Will Robert Lewandowski be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga SELL No 99¢ $91 107d
Will Robert Lewandowski be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga SELL No 99¢ $25 108d
Will Robert Lewandowski be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga SELL No 99¢ $2 108d
Will Robert Lewandowski be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga SELL No 99¢ $6 108d
Will Robert Lewandowski be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga SELL No 99¢ $144 108d
Will Robert Lewandowski be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga SELL No 99¢ $36 109d
Will Robert Lewandowski be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga SELL No 99¢ $17 109d
Will Robert Lewandowski be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga SELL No 99¢ $3 109d
Will Robert Lewandowski be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga SELL No 99¢ $17 109d
Will Robert Lewandowski be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga SELL No 99¢ $20 109d
Will Robert Lewandowski be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga SELL No 99¢ $88 109d
Will Robert Lewandowski be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga SELL No 99¢ $0 112d
Will Robert Lewandowski be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga SELL No 99¢ $28 112d
Will Robert Lewandowski be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga SELL No 99¢ $10 112d
Will Robert Lewandowski be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga SELL No 99¢ $68 112d
Will Robert Lewandowski be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga SELL No 99¢ $16 112d
Will Robert Lewandowski be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga SELL No 99¢ $5 112d
Will Robert Lewandowski be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga SELL No 99¢ $32 112d
Will Robert Lewandowski be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga SELL No 99¢ $3 112d
Will Robert Lewandowski be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga SELL No 99¢ $34 113d
Will Robert Lewandowski be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga SELL No 99¢ $5 115d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records