Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:05:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
57 0x578d…bbaa crypto 600 markets active 1h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$358 (+5%) realized +$357 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate54%323W / 274L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$82
7 days+$234
14 days+$392
30 days+$363
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 72% +$285
crypto 28% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +47.9% +33.8% 50% 25% +9.3%
≤30d 47 +14.8% +3.8% 49% 23% +3.5%
≤90d 47 +14.8% +3.8% 49% 23% +3.5%
all 597 +1.4% -8.3% 54% 50% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 50% -5.9%
10% -17.1% 45% -14.9%
15% -25.1% 41% -23.1%
20% -32.4% 33% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized+$357
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses323 / 274
Open positions3
Markets (closed)597 / 600
History coverage119d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 597 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Yes 40¢ 42¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? No 57¢ 56¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 248 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $94 −$3 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $103 −$14 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $118 −$30 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $19 −$11 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $176 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $104 −$27 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $22 +$177 +787%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $174 +$85 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $127 +$30 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $57 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $32 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 10? Jun 11 $7 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 10? Jun 11 $82 +$6 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $97 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $12 +$19 +151%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 9? Jun 10 $45 +$5 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 9? Jun 10 $269 −$58 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 −$3 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $28 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 8? Jun 09 $283 −$13 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 5? Jun 08 $131 +$13 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $18 −$8 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $3 −$2 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 5? Jun 05 $77 −$12 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 5? Jun 05 $73 −$6 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 5? Jun 05 $83 +$8 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 5? Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 4? Jun 05 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 4? Jun 05 $65 +$10 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 4? Jun 04 $65 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 4? Jun 04 $14 +$6 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 3? Jun 03 $9 −$9 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 3? Jun 03 $31 +$107 +348%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 3? Jun 03 $70 +$115 +164%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on June 3? Jun 03 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on May 22? Jun 03 $28 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 21? May 21 $36 −$3 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on May 21? May 21 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on May 21? May 21 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on May 20? May 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 20 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 20 $7 +$3 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 20? May 20 $39 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on May 20? May 20 $19 −$4 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 20 $4 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 17? Mar 17 $396 −$181 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 17? Mar 17 $250 +$12 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 13? Mar 13 $11 +$6 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 57¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 40¢ $41 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $55 19h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 41¢ $8 19h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 20h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 20h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 62¢ $8 22h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 62¢ $18 22h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? SELL No 80¢ $8 22h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? SELL No 81¢ $28 22h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 67¢ $27 22h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 67¢ $28 22h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 24h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 24h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 75¢ $38 25h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 74¢ $36 25h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 73¢ $22 25h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $94 25h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 15¢ $0 40h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 15¢ $7 40h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 15¢ $2 40h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 15¢ $7 40h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 30¢ $2 40h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 30¢ $6 40h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 30¢ $4 40h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 70¢ $7 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.50 · official $79.75 (match) · 1713 history records