Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:00:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x578b…2585 crypto 1072 markets active 0h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$118 (-6%) realized −$118 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate71%758W / 313L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day22.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$135
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 340 +1.1% -8.6% 68% 66% -8.3%
≤30d 340 +1.1% -8.6% 68% 66% -8.3%
≤90d 1071 -6.5% -15.4% 71% 53% -15.7%
all 1071 -6.5% -15.4% 71% 53% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.4% 53% -15.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.5% 35% -23.8%
15% -30.9% 23% -31.1%
20% -37.6% 16% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$118
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses758 / 313
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1071 / 1072
History coverage81d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day22.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1071 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Up 66¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 110 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.90 · official $0.86 (match) · 2771 history records