Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:48:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
57 0x578b…f396 other 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+1%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate40%21W / 31L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% +$10
other 26% +$2
politics 6% +$1
sports 2% $0
economics 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
weather 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.4% -9.2% 29% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 8 +0.4% -9.1% 38% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 19 +4.2% -5.8% 42% 11% -8.1%
all 52 +3.9% -6.0% 40% 8% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 8% -8.0%
10% -15.0% 8% -16.8%
15% -23.2% 4% -24.9%
20% -30.7% 2% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.8 per $1 lost it wins $4.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses21 / 31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage491d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? No 92¢ 93¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 24 $13 $0 +4%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $15 $0 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $31 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $49 −$1 -2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $53 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $1 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $27 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $74 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $54 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $48 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 24 $1 $0 +10%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $69 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $49 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 23 $25 +$9 +36%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $43 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $39 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 20 $43 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 18 $40 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 -0%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jul 15 $3 $0 -13%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese May 20 $6 $0 +5%
Will the Knicks beat the Celtics 4-3 May 16 $6 $0 -0%
Will Dan or Simion win the diaspora vote? May 16 $3 +$4 +130%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi May 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 11 $2 $0 -7%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? May 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 10 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? May 09 $7 $0 +1%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? May 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 06 $8 $0 -1%
Circle IPO in 2025? May 06 $7 $0 -1%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.22ºC in April 2025? May 06 $7 $0 +2%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? May 06 $7 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 05 $6 +$1 +26%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 25 $6 $0 +0%
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election? Apr 24 $6 $0 -0%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? Apr 24 $6 $0 -2%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can Apr 24 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Giants draft Abdul Carter? Apr 23 $7 −$2 -22%
Will Stephon Castle win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will Carmelo Anthony make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Ha Mar 21 $10 $0 +0%
Cavaliers vs. Magic Feb 25 $9 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $33 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 6h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 7h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 8h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 29¢ $13 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 15h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $4 15h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 15h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $3 15h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $3 15h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $4 15h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes $15 20h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $3 28h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $28 28h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $22 28h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $9 28h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 52¢ $4 38h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 52¢ $45 38h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 53¢ $49 42h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $53 45h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $53 46h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $12 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $15 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $27 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $54 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 58¢ $53 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.62 · official $33.48 (match) · 149 history records