Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:41:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
57 0x578a…e324 sports 186 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$91 (+5%) realized +$112 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%45W / 102L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$284now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$375
7 days+$235
14 days+$311
30 days+$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$140
other 10% −$73
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +34.2% +21.4% 36% 36% +11.1%
≤30d 147 +20.1% +8.7% 31% 31% -4.3%
≤90d 147 +20.1% +8.7% 31% 31% -4.3%
all 147 +20.1% +8.7% 31% 31% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.7% 31% -4.3%
10% -1.7% 31% -13.5%
15% -11.2% 30% -21.8%
20% -19.9% 29% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +38% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$8 · ×2.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$284
Realized+$112
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses45 / 102
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions39
Markets (closed)147 / 186
History coverage22d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 39 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $43 $34 −$9 (-21%)
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims) Allan Nascimento 62¢ 66¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Team Vitality 37¢ 38¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Rainbow Six Siege: Rebels Gaming vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage 1 Group Stage Rebels Gaming 23¢ 22¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-2%)
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Geekay Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage 1 Group Stage Geekay Esports 22¢ 21¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-5%)
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage 1 Group Stage Fnatic 54¢ 52¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims) Mitch Raposo 34¢ 34¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+0%)
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 177.5 Under 50¢ 50¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 70¢ 67¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-4%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage 1 Group Stage Team Secret 23¢ 22¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Yes 6¢ 10¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+56%)
Rainbow Six Siege: G2 Esports vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage 1 Group Stage Shifters 28¢ 28¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-3%)
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+11%)
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5) Solary 42¢ 18¢ $14 $6 −$8 (-56%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-12%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 101 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Game Handicap: LY (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) Jun 15 $22 +$106 +474%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Jun 15 $13 +$24 +180%
Will Robert MacIntyre finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Op Jun 15 $5 +$8 +158%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $12 +$11 +93%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) Jun 14 $9 +$14 +158%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 14 $11 +$37 +325%
Game Handicap: GAL (-2.5) vs Eintracht Spandau (+2.5) Jun 14 $9 +$17 +188%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin Jun 14 $6 +$19 +344%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 14 $24 −$23 -97%
Rainbow Six Siege: LOS vs LOUD (BO1) - South America League Stage 1 Gr Jun 14 $18 −$18 -98%
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs Eintracht Spandau (+1.5) Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Game Handicap: RED (-2.5) vs LOS (+2.5) Jun 14 $14 −$14 -98%
Rainbow Six Siege: Imperial Esports vs Team Liquid (BO1) - South Ameri Jun 14 $34 −$33 -97%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $21 −$21 -98%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MOUZ (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) Jun 14 $18 −$18 -98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $15 +$25 +165%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Dut Jun 13 $7 +$58 +786%
Rainbow Six Siege: Black Dragons e-Sports vs Fluxo W7M (BO1) - South A Jun 13 $33 +$106 +325%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $18 +$26 +140%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $23 +$46 +197%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $6 +$26 +442%
Game Handicap: C9 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) Jun 13 $11 −$11 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $17 −$17 -98%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 13 $11 −$11 -98%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $11 +$57 +510%
Game Handicap: HRTS (-1.5) vs Eintracht Spandau (+1.5) Jun 13 $17 −$17 -98%
Rainbow Six Siege: LOUD vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO1) - South America Lea Jun 13 $12 −$12 -98%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 13 $21 −$21 -99%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-3.5) vs XLG Gaming (+3.5) Jun 13 $13 −$13 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $8 −$8 -98%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $18 −$18 -98%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
Game Handicap: SLY (-2.5) vs G2 NORD (+2.5) Jun 13 $12 −$12 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $13 −$13 -98%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 12 $13 −$13 -97%
ITF Los Angeles: Gus Grumet vs Tristan Stringer Jun 11 $3 +$5 +194%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $4 −$4 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Borges vs Cilic Jun 11 $21 +$20 +97%
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Belinda Bencic Jun 10 $350 −$12 -3%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Game Handicap: SGW (-1.5) vs Saigon Dino (+1.5) Jun 10 $5 +$2 +40%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Dalila Spiteri vs Laura Svatikova Jun 10 $6 +$26 +442%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 12m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $20 23m
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 177.5 BUY Under 50¢ $12 44m
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Mitch Raposo 34¢ $13 1h
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage BUY Fnatic 54¢ $15 1h
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA L BUY Team Secret 23¢ $9 1h
Rainbow Six Siege: G2 Esports vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA League S BUY Shifters 28¢ $8 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 37¢ $18 1h
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Geekay Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Le BUY Geekay Esports 22¢ $16 1h
Rainbow Six Siege: Rebels Gaming vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA BUY Rebels Gaming 23¢ $16 1h
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5) BUY Solary 42¢ $14 1h
Game Handicap: LY (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) BUY LYON 17¢ $12 20h
Game Handicap: LY (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) BUY LYON 17¢ $10 20h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $8 25h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas BUY Top Esports Challenger 11¢ $24 25h
Rainbow Six Siege: LOS vs LOUD (BO1) - South America League Stage 1 Gr BUY LOUD 43¢ $18 25h
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs Eintracht Spandau (+1.5) BUY Eintracht Spandau 35¢ $9 26h
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin BUY Alba Berlin 22¢ $6 27h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 27h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 27h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 27h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 27h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 27h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 27h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 27h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 27h
Game Handicap: GAL (-2.5) vs Eintracht Spandau (+2.5) BUY Galions 34¢ $9 28h
Game Handicap: RED (-2.5) vs LOS (+2.5) BUY RED Canids 20¢ $14 28h
Rainbow Six Siege: Imperial Esports vs Team Liquid (BO1) - South Ameri BUY Imperial Esports 11¢ $34 28h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY 4ikibamboni 23¢ $11 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $283.62 · official $283.62 (match) · 244 history records