Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:42:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x5787…1f86 weather 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$688 (-68%) realized −$688 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%8W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day53.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 80% −$689
crypto 20% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -19.2% -26.9% 67% 33% -68.8%
≤30d 12 -19.2% -26.9% 67% 33% -68.8%
≤90d 12 -19.2% -26.9% 67% 33% -68.8%
all 12 -19.2% -26.9% 67% 33% -68.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.9% 33% -68.8%
10% ← realistic here -33.9% 17% -71.8%
15% -40.3% 0% -74.5%
20% -46.2% 0% -77.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -66% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -66% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$175 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$688
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses8 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day53.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $76 +$19 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 18 $76 +$8 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 17? Jun 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 17? Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 17? Jun 18 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 18 $60 +$9 +15%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 18 $14 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 17 $599 −$599 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $69 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 58¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 59¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 60¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 60¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 60¢ $6 8h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 60¢ $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 60¢ $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 61¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 61¢ $9 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $7 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 65¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 66¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY No 82¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY No 84¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY No 86¢ $10 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 60 history records