Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:07:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

57
0x5784…8d79
finance · 8 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$39 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$43 · open +$82
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP finance specialist⚠ Small sample
Net worth$268
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$82
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage110d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 6 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$30
14 days−$30
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be less than $100? Yes $73 $191 +$118 (+162%)
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150? Yes 23¢ 16¢ $114 $77 −$37 (-32%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Down 64¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? No 13¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $42 −$3 -7%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $181 −$27 -15%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Domino's Pizza (DPZ) beat quarterly earnings? Mar 14 $11 +$23 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Feb 22 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Feb 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
finance 97% +$41
crypto 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 26¢ $4 1h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be less BUY Yes $19 1h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 27¢ $17 1h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL No 80¢ $39 1h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 25¢ $45 1h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be less BUY Yes $31 1h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL Yes 61¢ $76 1h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 86¢ $42 1h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be less BUY Yes $16 1h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 23¢ $21 1h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL Yes 60¢ $78 1h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 69¢ $181 1h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 18¢ $31 1h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be less BUY Yes $10 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? BUY No 13¢ $35 90d
Will Domino's Pizza (DPZ) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 33¢ $11 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 109d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -11.0% -19.5% 0% 0% -21.5%
≤30d 2 -11.0% -19.5% 0% 0% -21.5%
≤90d 2 -11.0% -19.5% 0% 0% -21.5%
all 6 +1.6% -8.0% 33% 33% -23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 33% -23.2%
10% -16.8% 33% -30.6%
15% -24.9% 17% -37.3%
20% -32.2% 17% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $268.43 · official $268.43 (match) · 20 history records