Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:34:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
57 0x5781…c8fa crypto 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 368d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$83 (-1%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate43%15W / 20L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$170per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% −$2
sports 26% −$12
economics 13% −$1
culture 12% $0
other 9% −$2
crypto 3% −$66
world 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 3 -33.3% -39.7% 33% 0% -24.3%
≤90d 5 -20.0% -27.6% 60% 0% -20.7%
all 35 -5.7% -14.7% 43% 0% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 0% -10.8%
10% -22.9% 0% -19.3%
15% -30.3% 0% -27.1%
20% -37.2% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.9 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

368d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses15 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage368d
Avg bet$170
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? No 57¢ 56¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 8? Jun 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ali Motahari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $38 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 27 $10 −$10 -99%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 April 6-12? Apr 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $20 March 9-15? Mar 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? Feb 28 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 January 26-1? Jan 31 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 07 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 30 $49 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $170 on November 23? Dec 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,000 on November 18? Nov 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 17 $735 −$1 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 17 $750 −$1 -0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 17 $762 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 10 $775 −$1 -0%
Will the San Jose Sharks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Nov 10 $744 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 10 $807 −$1 -0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 23 $30 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $160 September 22-28? Oct 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4800 and $4900 on August 20? Sep 24 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in August? Sep 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.0 in July? Aug 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 02 $15 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in July? Aug 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 24 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in June? Jul 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Athletics win the 2025 World Series? Jun 23 $175 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 23 $175 −$2 -1%
Will Přísaha win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electi Jun 21 $185 $0 -0%
Will Marian Vanghelie be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 21 $177 $0 -0%
Will Karen Khachanov win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 21 $180 $0 -0%
Will Stačilo! win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary elect Jun 21 $182 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 57¢ $33 1h
Will Ali Motahari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $38 18d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $15 18d
Will Ali Motahari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 18d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs BUY 9z 68¢ $10 28d
Will XRP dip to $0.60 April 6-12? BUY No 100¢ $10 77d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $10 90d
Will Solana dip to $20 March 9-15? BUY No 100¢ $9 106d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 January 26-1? BUY No 99¢ $66 144d
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 167d
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $52 167d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 176d
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 176d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $49 176d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $12 176d
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 176d
Will the price of Solana be above $170 on November 23? BUY No 100¢ $10 214d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $734 218d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $28 218d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $735 218d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $722 218d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,000 on November 18? BUY No 100¢ $7 218d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $750 218d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,000 on November 18? BUY No 100¢ $6 218d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 226d
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $9 226d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $771 226d
Will the San Jose Sharks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 226d
Will the San Jose Sharks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 100¢ $223 226d
Will the San Jose Sharks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 100¢ $518 226d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.59 · official $32.60 (match) · 91 history records