Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:27:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x577f…5d34 crypto 172 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (82 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$107 (-2%) realized −$94 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%70W / 101L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day81.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$209
14 days−$273
30 days−$273
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$251
weather 3% −$36
sports 0% +$1
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (82 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 125 -0.2% -9.7% 46% 45% -13.9%
≤30d 171 -12.5% -20.8% 41% 39% -15.1%
≤90d 171 -12.5% -20.8% 41% 39% -15.1%
all 171 -12.5% -20.8% 41% 39% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover81.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.8% 39% -15.1%
10% ← realistic here -28.4% 37% -23.2%
15% -35.3% 34% -30.7%
20% -41.7% 27% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$20 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$94
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses70 / 101
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)171 / 172
History coverage11d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day81.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $14 +$11 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 18 $18 −$17 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$13 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $77 −$57 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $30 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $80 +$55 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $17 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $51 −$29 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $75 −$72 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $50 −$34 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $41 −$39 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $38 −$32 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $103 +$88 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $68 +$80 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$7 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $93 +$25 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $186 −$159 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $90 +$17 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $174 +$62 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $260 −$250 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $117 −$112 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $105 −$51 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $73 +$127 +174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $403 −$41 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $64 −$61 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $53 +$52 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $114 +$95 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $82 +$35 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$16 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $32 +$54 +168%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 12 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $41 +$24 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $43 +$67 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$76 +288%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $34 +$45 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 41m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.03 (match) · 1018 history records