Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:15:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x577e…2cdf other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$25 (-6%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$16
sports 10% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -10.4% -18.9% 67% 56% -10.0%
≤30d 9 -10.4% -18.9% 67% 56% -10.0%
≤90d 9 -10.4% -18.9% 67% 56% -10.0%
all 9 -10.4% -18.9% 67% 56% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 56% -10.0%
10% -26.7% 11% -18.6%
15% -33.8% 0% -26.4%
20% -40.3% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$15 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage2d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $185 +$16 +8%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $45 +$9 +21%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $31 +$10 +32%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 25 $17 −$17 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $23 +$3 +12%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $24 $0 -2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $20 +$3 +15%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $17 +$3 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $69 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 95¢ $65 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 92¢ $66 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 90¢ $65 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 89¢ $66 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 73¢ $54 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 98¢ $54 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 81¢ $45 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Canada 0¢ $0 7h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $31 13h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 12¢ $17 14h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $28 14h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 24h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 89¢ $23 24h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 91¢ $23 34h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 92¢ $24 34h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $23 34h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $20 35h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 81¢ $20 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $17 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 23 history records