Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:45:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

57 0x577e…d876 other 36 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$158 (+7%) realized +$207 · open −$49

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip

Net edge-20%after slip

Net WR34%break-even

Win rate34%10W / 19L

Drawdown85%max

Avg bet$59per market

Trades / day12.7pace

Fees−$15est.

Kalshi-fit47%portable

Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +34%

net ROI/market (all)-13.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	29	-3.9%	-13.0%	34%	34%	-1.9%
≤30d	29	-3.9%	-13.0%	34%	34%	-1.9%
≤90d	29	-3.9%	-13.0%	34%	34%	-1.9%
all	29	-3.9%	-13.0%	34%	34%	-1.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover12.7 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-13.0%	34%	-1.9%
10%	-21.4%	31%	-11.3%
15%	-29.0%	31%	-19.8%
20%	-35.9%	28%	-27.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -4% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +2% → late -9% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$90 vs −$39 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.2 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$122

Realized+$207

Unrealized−$49

Win rate (resolved)34%

Wins / losses10 / 19

Est. fees paid−$15

Open positions5

Markets (closed)29 / 36

History coverage6d

Avg bet$59

Trades / day12.7

Drawdown85%

Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 29 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	42¢	34¢	$101	$83	−$18 (-18%)
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	Over	50¢	22¢	$50	$22	−$28 (-55%)
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal?	Yes	12¢	14¢	$12	$14	+$2 (+21%)
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Senegal?	Yes	5¢	2¢	$5	$2	−$3 (-54%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw?	Yes	4¢	0¢	$4	$0	−$3 (-99%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: France (-2.5)	Jun 22	$114	−$31	-28%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$203	+$97	+48%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$39	−$39	-100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$30	+$70	+233%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	Jun 21	$84	−$84	-100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$136	−$136	-100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla	Jun 21	$20	+$40	+194%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5	Jun 21	$105	+$95	+90%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5	Jun 21	$33	+$6	+20%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	Jun 21	$23	−$23	-100%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe	Jun 21	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$13	−$13	-100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$4	−$4	-100%
Germany leading at halftime?	Jun 20	$120	+$130	+108%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$294	−$189	-64%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 20	$102	−$4	-4%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	Jun 20	$32	−$32	-100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	Jun 19	$33	−$32	-98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$19	−$15	-80%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	Jun 19	$31	−$31	-100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$45	+$55	+122%
Spread: Canada (-1.5)	Jun 19	$208	+$170	+82%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$20	−$17	-85%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$64	+$163	+256%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Jun 18	$20	−$20	-100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$17	+$75	+431%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$18	−$18	-100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$51	−$50	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Senegal?	BUY Yes	5¢	$2	25m
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Senegal?	BUY Yes	5¢	$3	25m
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal?	BUY Yes	12¢	$12	34m
Spread: France (-2.5)	SELL France	42¢	$83	1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	50¢	$50	2h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw?	BUY Yes	4¢	$1	2h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw?	BUY Yes	4¢	$1	2h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw?	BUY Yes	4¢	$1	2h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw?	BUY Yes	4¢	$1	2h
Spread: France (-2.5)	BUY France	57¢	$114	3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	42¢	$101	4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	67¢	$203	7h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-2.5)	BUY	24¢	$51	8h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY No	39¢	$18	23h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY No	39¢	$12	23h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY No	39¢	$5	23h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY No	39¢	$3	23h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY No	30¢	$30	27h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	BUY Belgium	42¢	$84	29h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$136	29h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	8¢	$4	30h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	71¢	$35	31h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	32¢	$33	32h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	52¢	$105	32h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	BUY FURIA	23¢	$23	32h
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe	BUY Taylor Fritz	6¢	$10	34h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla	BUY Leviatán Esports	34¢	$20	42h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY No	3¢	$13	43h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	5¢	$3	2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	5¢	$0	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.78 · official $173.20 · 94 history records