Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:56:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x577b…ad6a other 156 markets active 2h ago coverage 256d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$485 (+3%) realized +$443 · open +$42
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate54%75W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$2,120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$26
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$1,000
sports 15% +$250
tech 7% +$328
world 6% −$23
economics 6% +$20
crypto 5% +$295
finance 3% +$396
politics 2% +$195
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.9% -8.7% 50% 50% -44.1%
≤90d 17 -12.5% -20.8% 24% 18% -18.2%
all 140 +7.6% -2.6% 54% 29% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.6% 29% -6.4%
10% -11.9% 29% -15.3%
15% -20.4% 28% -23.5%
20% -28.2% 24% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$46 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

256d coverage
Net worth$2,120
Realized+$443
Unrealized+$42
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses75 / 65
Open positions16
Markets (closed)140 / 156
History coverage256d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $620 $615 −$5 (-1%)
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $600 $595 −$5 (-1%)
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $280 $265 −$15 (-5%)
Will Colombia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $190 $185 −$5 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $65 $92 +$27 (+41%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ $36 $83 +$47 (+132%)
MagicBlock FDV above $60M one day after launch? No 34¢ 55¢ $34 $55 +$21 (+62%)
QFEX FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 45¢ 76¢ $29 $50 +$21 (+70%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 11¢ $69 $45 −$24 (-35%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $44 $41 −$3 (-7%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $34 $23 −$11 (-33%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $29 $23 −$6 (-21%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $13 $20 +$7 (+53%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $21 $16 −$5 (-24%)
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
QFEX FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 83¢ 63¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 20 $57 −$32 -56%
MagicBlock FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 20 $11 +$6 +58%
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 28 $68 −$22 -32%
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 28 $81 −$20 -24%
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 28 $81 −$3 -4%
MagicBlock FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 17 $56 +$1 +2%
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 17 $40 −$12 -30%
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 17 $25 −$8 -34%
GRVT FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 17 $14 −$8 -62%
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 17 $26 −$15 -58%
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 17 $44 −$21 -48%
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? Apr 17 $68 −$14 -21%
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 17 $8 −$3 -38%
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 17 $76 −$5 -7%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 17 $48 $0 -0%
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 17 $57 +$33 +58%
Mezo FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 17 $55 +$45 +82%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Mar 11 $179 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Mar 06 $94 +$1 +1%
Will Ja Morant win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 06 $250 $0 +0%
Hyperlend FDV above $20M one day after launch? Feb 27 $104 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 25 $250 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 18 $402 $0 +0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 15 $400 $0 -0%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on February 13? Feb 14 $104 +$96 +92%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on February 13? Feb 14 $126 +$174 +138%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on February 13? Feb 13 $82 −$82 -100%
Meta (META) Up or Down on February 13? Feb 13 $47 −$47 -100%
Dow Jones (DJI) Up or Down on February 12? Feb 13 $28 +$72 +257%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on February 12? Feb 13 $98 +$102 +104%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on February 12? Feb 13 $98 +$122 +125%
NYA (NYA) Up or Down on February 12? Feb 13 $168 +$72 +43%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on February 12? Feb 12 $110 −$110 -100%
Meta (META) Up or Down on February 11? Feb 12 $70 +$30 +43%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on February 11? Feb 12 $53 +$47 +89%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on February 11? Feb 12 $40 +$60 +150%
NYA (NYA) Up or Down on February 11? Feb 12 $30 +$70 +233%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on February 11? Feb 12 $54 +$46 +85%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on February 11? Feb 11 $55 −$55 -100%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on February 10? Feb 11 $49 +$51 +104%
Dow Jones (DJI) Up or Down on February 10? Feb 11 $63 +$37 +59%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 10? Feb 11 $47 +$53 +113%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on February 10? Feb 10 $53 −$53 -100%
Meta (META) Up or Down on February 10? Feb 10 $51 −$51 -100%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on February 10? Feb 10 $53 −$53 -100%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on February 10? Feb 10 $52 −$52 -100%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on February 10? Feb 10 $42 −$42 -100%
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on February 10? Feb 10 $52 $0 +0%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on February 10? Feb 10 $48 −$48 -100%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on February 9? Feb 10 $73 +$37 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $195 1h
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $364 1h
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $243 1h
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $12 1h
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $158 7h
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $11 7h
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 7h
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 7h
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 7h
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $31 7h
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $19 7h
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $62 7h
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $132 10h
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 10h
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $14 10h
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $134 10h
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $31 11h
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $31 11h
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $124 12h
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $124 12h
QFEX FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 79¢ $16 5d
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL No 26¢ $25 8d
MagicBlock FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 44¢ $17 8d
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL No 46¢ $46 61d
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL No 61¢ $61 61d
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 78¢ $78 61d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $13 72d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 72d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $29 72d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $34 72d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,119.69 · official $2,119.69 (match) · 451 history records