Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:28:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x5779…54ad crypto 1233 markets active 1d ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 103d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,810 (-1%) realized −$1,810 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate65%804W / 429L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$211per market
Trades / day31.5pace
Fees−$544est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,065
7 days−$1,644
14 days−$1,644
30 days−$4,871
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% +$685
sports 20% −$2,782
other 1% −$1,257
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -14.1% -22.3% 54% 49% -16.0%
≤30d 133 -11.3% -19.8% 55% 47% -17.3%
≤90d 275 -12.6% -20.9% 53% 47% -15.5%
all 1233 -4.5% -13.6% 65% 55% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 55% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 40% -19.1%
15% -29.4% 27% -26.9%
20% -36.4% 18% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$146 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,810
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses804 / 429
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$544
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1233 / 1233
History coverage103d ⚠
Avg bet$211
Trades / day31.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1233 Trades
no open positions (335 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $511 −$500 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,432 −$1,400 -98%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 24 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 24 $1,109 −$1,100 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 24 $504 −$500 -99%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C Jun 24 $419 −$416 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 24 $343 −$338 -98%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 24 $1,015 +$933 +92%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 24 $33 +$27 +82%
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Seaso Jun 24 $713 −$700 -98%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 24 $1,513 +$629 +42%
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch FER Jun 24 $306 −$300 -98%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) Jun 24 $404 −$400 -99%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 24 $503 +$122 +24%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 24 $509 +$654 +129%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 23 $404 −$400 -99%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $304 −$7 -2%
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage Jun 23 $304 −$300 -99%
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro Jun 23 $504 +$161 +32%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $1,015 +$1,023 +101%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $304 +$257 +85%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 23 $1,511 +$145 +10%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $303 −$300 -99%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 23 $302 −$300 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 23 $202 +$92 +46%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 23 $302 +$93 +31%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 23 $402 −$400 -99%
Valorant: FUSION vs LAZER (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Sea Jun 23 $201 +$58 +29%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $905 +$243 +27%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: ENERGYULTRA vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group Jun 22 $174 +$137 +79%
Valorant: OXEN vs Leviatán Academy (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Re Jun 22 $601 +$34 +6%
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs ShindeN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regula Jun 22 $507 +$495 +97%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 22 $304 +$199 +66%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Jun 22 $403 +$108 +27%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - TESFED League Pl Jun 22 $304 +$237 +78%
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout Jun 22 $1,704 +$352 +21%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $1,758 +$918 +52%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs Jun 04 $1,092 −$1,085 -99%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $707 +$385 +54%
Makarska: Katarzyna Kawa vs Maya Joint Jun 04 $304 +$196 +65%
Makarska: Lola Radivojevic vs Mia Ristic Jun 04 $3,020 −$3,000 -99%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast As Jun 04 $603 −$600 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $304 −$13 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 04 $101 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 04 $100 +$5 +5%
Valorant: FlyQuest RED vs SwimTrek Blue (BO3) - VCT Game Changers Nort Jun 04 $504 +$190 +38%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $202 −$200 -99%
LoL: Deer Gaming vs The Ruddy Sack (BO5) - NLC Playoffs Jun 03 $202 −$193 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $511 25h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 25¢ $1,432 25h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY OG 57¢ $1,013 27h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 73¢ $1,109 28h
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Boston Red Sox 74¢ $504 28h
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY UCAM Esports Club 82¢ $419 29h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 50¢ $343 29h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN SELL Sharks 100¢ $1,948 29h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Sharks 51¢ $1,015 33h
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group BUY AM Gaming 54¢ $33 33h
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Seaso BUY T1 Academy 36¢ $713 43h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 70¢ $1,513 45h
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch FER BUY Atrix Esports 33¢ $306 46h
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 69¢ $404 47h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 69¢ $404 2d
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) BUY Houston Astros 80¢ $503 2d
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Houston Astros 43¢ $509 2d
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Team Liquid Academy 60¢ $304 2d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY Walczaki 50¢ $304 2d
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro SELL Mandatory 100¢ $665 2d
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B SELL FOKUS 100¢ $2,039 2d
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY Mandatory 75¢ $504 2d
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY FOKUS 49¢ $1,015 2d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 53¢ $304 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres SELL San Diego Padres 99¢ $1,632 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 95¢ $300 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres SELL Atlanta Braves $24 2d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY REKONIX 65¢ $303 2d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY REKONIX 79¢ $302 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 75¢ $1,007 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3482 history records